Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft reach $510 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x389b3ea29c43fb2b0a061ca3be280cd0a4e3d10ffcd61053c8562922919d7f56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 20c | 1,582$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.83 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 29c | 737.31$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 40c | 458.78$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.75 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 77c | 380.79$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.39 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 9c | 283.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 76c | 262$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 229.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 29c | 195$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 16c | 177$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed No | 65c | 76.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 50c | 76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…ac24backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…f11abacked No | 68c | 57.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e06…f72bbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80b5…a34dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft reach $510 in January?this page
- Will Microsoft dip to $405 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft dip to $428 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $450 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $465 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft dip to $480 in January?Yes won
- Will Microsoft reach $495 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $525 in January?No won
- Will Microsoft reach $548 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.