TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$384,273
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$334,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $384,273 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes16c17,896$2,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,882.0942818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Yes34c16,443$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,600.381926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+284.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc6…6b84backed Yes32c10,649$3,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,396.81275%9 W · 3 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick42cpaid+75.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes0c9,682$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.734769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed No73c5,684$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.4314036.4%51 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63c7…d693backed Yes27c5,662$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,553.971752.9%9 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick25cpaid+180.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe31a…0fc2backed Yes18c5,568$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd221…a44bbacked Yes18c5,562$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.55425.9%14 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No53c4,642$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,165.5931241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c4,159$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.1389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ce3…f388backed Yes1c4,000$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes32c3,940$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2765733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes17c3,725$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.760%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f9…dd9cbacked Yes12c3,610$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.711346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes21c3,284$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.564531.1%14 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No43c3,278$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.8751138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed Yes15c3,000$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.856616.7%11 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes17c2,715$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.0448630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes9c2,272$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.72438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x124b…8a69backed Yes5c2,254$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4075…8fb8backed Yes11c2,200$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4979…629abacked Yes2c2,174$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes60c2,021$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,211.884656.5%26 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes1c2,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172020%4 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6754…302bbacked Yes13c1,952$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.311612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,942$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.255071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes19c1,938$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.065541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc138…2ec6backed Yes13c1,903$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+322.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9b…c85ebacked Yes49c1,878$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8aa…3b03backed Yes11c1,828$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked No61c1,822$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$711.588145.7%37 W · 44 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x77c3…00c8backed Yes25c1,820$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.645742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed No69c1,801$1,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.51833.3%6 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No53c1,762$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.513844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4198…ae38backed Yes15c1,667$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6276…2dd9backed No76c1,661$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.78922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.7wins-0.41per pick63cpaid-64.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb100…1fb6backed Yes24c1,656$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4004515.6%7 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-39%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked No58c1,634$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.481936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-23.8%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x1a5b…1439backed Yes4c1,587$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No55c1,569$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.2458927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes1c1,517$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1514325.9%37 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a74…7af0backed No77c1,500$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No36c1,486$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes35c1,391$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.2280%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes22c1,358$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.841711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-71.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes9c1,318$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.216439.1%25 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe709…9d39backed No79c1,274$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.332045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370c…3eb1backed Yes27c1,260$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.468842%37 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No65c1,250$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.1716061.9%99 W · 61 L+9.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf56b…d593backed Yes3c1,237$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.12343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes14c1,235$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.9910913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes18c1,230$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.0929027.9%81 W · 209 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes12c1,212$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.441338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes65c1,203$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.635964.4%38 W · 21 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+50%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb5bc…90a6backed Yes15c1,190$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ee…da09backed Yes11c1,189$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.047636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf18d…42edbacked Yes14c1,185$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.71540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick13cpaid+105%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes4c1,185$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1910520%21 W · 84 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-57.5%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed No70c1,182$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.07633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes15c1,163$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes6c1,145$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6836626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2851…dd19backed Yes22c1,143$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa583…2928backed Yes17c1,142$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes37c1,122$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.036013.3%8 W · 52 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid+64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9987…5563backed Yes14c1,108$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15580%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ad…fa18backed Yes23c1,090$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…f4dabacked Yes47c1,074$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,062$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.732282.6%6 W · 222 L+0.6wins0.00per pick2cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf296…84f6backed Yes16c1,061$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702920.7%6 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes12c1,051$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid+15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d1…3841backed Yes50c1,048$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783b…dc4cbacked No78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x997b…801ebacked No80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.022330.4%7 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick14cpaid+48.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick15cpaid+196.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes30c1,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6612…3d87backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f8…316dbacked No57c999.99$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes30c999$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.79825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a38…40c1backed Yes15c996.15$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97f2…2aecbacked Yes20c981.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2acc…2865backed Yes49c965.66$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4711833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked Yes20c953$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed No80c903$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.9wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+122.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fad…c28cbacked Yes22c893.68$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes12c879.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.755028%14 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-49.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No73c868.62$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.861258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…ccc1backed Yes23c864.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.981040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed68…f22cbacked Yes73c842.39$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes17c841.74$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.454136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes39c837.92$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+88.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes12c820$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda9e…ac09backed Yes60c810.94$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.955151%26 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d98…c8ddbacked No62c810.65$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.652347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad42…fe63backed Yes25c808.89$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2051533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c803.85$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.277135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…3dd1backed Yes13c780$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.812139.7%48 W · 73 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes12c763$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.562458.3%14 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+39.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf95f…f988backed Yes13c761.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002611.5%3 W · 23 L-8.2wins-0.32per pick43cpaid-69.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xa91e…09e0backed Yes31c738.63$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.583737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.