Middle East · resolved market
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307a56c2575036f0e7dc5eb6ca4a291050a7ebcab5b0822ac48939eae0d4f8f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $384,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $384,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 442 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 16c | 17,896$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,882.09 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 34c | 16,443$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600.38 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc6…6b84backed Yes | 32c | 10,649$3,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,396.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,682$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 73c | 5,684$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.43 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 27c | 5,662$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,553.97 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…0fc2backed Yes | 18c | 5,568$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…a44bbacked Yes | 18c | 5,562$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.5 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 53c | 4,642$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.59 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 4,159$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.13 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…f388backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66b…b1d1backed Yes | 32c | 3,940$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,276 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…d8cfbacked Yes | 17c | 3,725$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…dd9cbacked Yes | 12c | 3,610$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,284$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.56 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 43c | 3,278$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,858.87 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…c770backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.85 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 17c | 2,715$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.04 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,272$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.7 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…8a69backed Yes | 5c | 2,254$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…8fb8backed Yes | 11c | 2,200$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4979…629abacked Yes | 2c | 2,174$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 60c | 2,021$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.88 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd4…0796backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…302bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,952$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.31 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,942$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 19c | 1,938$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.06 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…2ec6backed Yes | 13c | 1,903$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +322.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…c85ebacked Yes | 49c | 1,878$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8aa…3b03backed Yes | 11c | 1,828$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 61c | 1,822$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.58 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 25c | 1,820$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.64 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad87…6a86backed No | 69c | 1,801$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 53c | 1,762$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.51 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…ae38backed Yes | 15c | 1,667$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…2dd9backed No | 76c | 1,661$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 63cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 24c | 1,656$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…84bcbacked No | 58c | 1,634$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 4c | 1,587$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 55c | 1,569$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.24 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,517$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…7af0backed No | 77c | 1,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 1,486$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.3 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes | 35c | 1,391$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cc…2dd9backed Yes | 22c | 1,358$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,318$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 79c | 1,274$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.33 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 27c | 1,260$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.46 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 65c | 1,250$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.17 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…d593backed Yes | 3c | 1,237$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,235$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,230$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.09 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 12c | 1,212$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 65c | 1,203$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.63 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…90a6backed Yes | 15c | 1,190$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 11c | 1,189$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18d…42edbacked Yes | 14c | 1,185$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,185$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed No | 70c | 1,182$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 1,163$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 1,145$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…dd19backed Yes | 22c | 1,143$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…2928backed Yes | 17c | 1,142$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 37c | 1,122$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.03 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9987…5563backed Yes | 14c | 1,108$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ad…fa18backed Yes | 23c | 1,090$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8180…f4dabacked Yes | 47c | 1,074$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,062$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…84f6backed Yes | 16c | 1,061$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,051$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d1…3841backed Yes | 50c | 1,048$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc2…2f88backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…a85abacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +196.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…e1b6backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6612…3d87backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f8…316dbacked No | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 30c | 999$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a38…40c1backed Yes | 15c | 996.15$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…2aecbacked Yes | 20c | 981.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acc…2865backed Yes | 49c | 965.66$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked Yes | 20c | 953$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed No | 80c | 903$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…c28cbacked Yes | 22c | 893.68$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 879.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.75 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0a…b9ccbacked No | 73c | 868.62$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.86 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab19…ccc1backed Yes | 23c | 864.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…f22cbacked Yes | 73c | 842.39$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 841.74$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2e…36fdbacked Yes | 39c | 837.92$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 12c | 820$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 60c | 810.94$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.95 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked No | 62c | 810.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.65 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…fe63backed Yes | 25c | 808.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 803.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed Yes | 13c | 780$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 12c | 763$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf95f…f988backed Yes | 13c | 761.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -8.2wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…09e0backed Yes | 31c | 738.63$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.58 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.