Fed Rates · resolved market
US strikes Iran or Trump announces Fed nominee first?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed872dd84439df3c8a53925e6ef8c681ba8c0ba87e7001f73fa1d6dc794a135f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trump Announce Fedof US Strikes Iran, Trump Announce Fed
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa244…545abacked US Strikes Iran | 4c | 4,554$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…a781backed US Strikes Iran | 18c | 2,871$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed US Strikes Iran | 1c | 2,172$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed US Strikes Iran | 3c | 1,200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked US Strikes Iran | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked US Strikes Iran | 18c | 852.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked US Strikes Iran | 12c | 762.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked Trump Announce Fed | 79c | 644.58$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked US Strikes Iran | 16c | 529.97$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…12efbacked US Strikes Iran | 20c | 506.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8b…b15ebacked US Strikes Iran | 2c | 497.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x648c…09c6backed Trump Announce Fed | 80c | 450.49$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked US Strikes Iran | 21c | 441.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed US Strikes Iran | 18c | 430$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked US Strikes Iran | 19c | 424$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed US Strikes Iran | 19c | 415$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.85 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7a80backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 377.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked US Strikes Iran | 18c | 350.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked US Strikes Iran | 13c | 347.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39e…1d88backed Trump Announce Fed | 71c | 312.2$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2343…d6f0backed US Strikes Iran | 16c | 300.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2425…3dd1backed US Strikes Iran | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 290$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Trump Announce Fed | 78c | 273$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed US Strikes Iran | 19c | 269.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Trump Announce Fed | 77c | 261.04$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed US Strikes Iran | 15c | 250$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed US Strikes Iran | 12c | 233.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 227.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked US Strikes Iran | 5c | 226.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 72 | 2.8%2 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 211.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Trump Announce Fed | 75c | 200$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed US Strikes Iran | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked US Strikes Iran | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed US Strikes Iran | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed US Strikes Iran | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Trump Announce Fed | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed US Strikes Iran | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed US Strikes Iran | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed US Strikes Iran | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 138 | 29.7%41 W · 97 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed US Strikes Iran | 9c | 197.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Trump Announce Fed | 70c | 195.71$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked US Strikes Iran | 23c | 179.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c2…36f4backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 176.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed US Strikes Iran | 18c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…87cbbacked US Strikes Iran | 32c | 154.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked US Strikes Iran | 18c | 153.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…e268backed Trump Announce Fed | 65c | 152.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…3aabbacked US Strikes Iran | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Trump Announce Fed | 76c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ec…f4e2backed Trump Announce Fed | 67c | 149.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 144.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…545dbacked US Strikes Iran | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…c522backed US Strikes Iran | 19c | 136.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed US Strikes Iran | 11c | 127.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 119.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked US Strikes Iran | 28c | 111.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1c…90ccbacked US Strikes Iran | 18c | 110.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked US Strikes Iran | 12c | 109.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Trump Announce Fed | 74c | 106.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…ffbabacked US Strikes Iran | 10c | 104.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…0dd1backed US Strikes Iran | 24c | 102.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…492dbacked US Strikes Iran | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Trump Announce Fed | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed US Strikes Iran | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd583…6874backed US Strikes Iran | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked US Strikes Iran | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed US Strikes Iran | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…6658backed US Strikes Iran | 21c | 97.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab6…f6bdbacked US Strikes Iran | 22c | 91.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…2455backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 90.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa446…754ebacked Trump Announce Fed | 68c | 88.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 83.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed US Strikes Iran | 13c | 80.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed US Strikes Iran | 16c | 62.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…966cbacked US Strikes Iran | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46c…dfd4backed Trump Announce Fed | 78c | 60.26$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed US Strikes Iran | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Trump Announce Fed | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd757…94aabacked Trump Announce Fed | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f15…6474backed Trump Announce Fed | 71c | 56.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Trump Announce Fed | 74c | 56.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe25e…3f31backed US Strikes Iran | 18c | 55.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3531backed Trump Announce Fed | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed US Strikes Iran | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed US Strikes Iran | 29c | 38.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Trump Announce Fed | 76c | 33.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Trump Announce Fed | 75c | 27.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed Trump Announce Fed | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1823…9a8ebacked Trump Announce Fed | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Trump Announce Fed | 75c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…8892backed Trump Announce Fed | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2315…39b1backed Trump Announce Fed | 76c | 13.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…5d25backed Trump Announce Fed | 79c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.