Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cb9ad3a3715974795e1aae9a082fe26e4e8f5a9513ee1f04b99f25a9954c447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 39c | 4,816$1,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960.64 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 62c | 3,015$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.2 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 507$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.33 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 3c | 499.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 39c | 474.32$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.05 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 457.06$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.33 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 455.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 442$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 55c | 284.22$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 41c | 265$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.51 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 59c | 257$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 52c | 254.73$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 43c | 244.38$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 61c | 234$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.74 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 39c | 228.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 40c | 224.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 39c | 209.62$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 41c | 197.09$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.12 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 183$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 41c | 174.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 161.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.57 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 64c | 160.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes | 76c | 157.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 8c | 136.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 24c | 115$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.05 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 108.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e34…224ebacked Yes | 68c | 100.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 60c | 97.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 40c | 91.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b6…091abacked Yes | 41c | 89.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 44c | 88.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 61c | 87.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…b24abacked Yes | 46c | 84.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 44c | 83.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 76.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 41c | 74.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 45c | 74.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 19c | 69.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 58c | 68$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 41c | 63.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 60.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 38c | 56.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 60c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 39c | 51.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bb…567dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 49.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 70c | 45.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 39c | 44.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 42c | 42.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 35c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe7…88e7backed No | 61c | 40.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 39.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91c3…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 37.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 75c | 34.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 66c | 32.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34d…2a65backed Yes | 43c | 30.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -15.2wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 29-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 65c | 28.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed Yes | 40c | 27.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 80c | 26.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 26.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 42c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219c…4a95backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 23.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 58c | 22.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 60c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 19.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 54c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 60c | 18.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 60c | 18.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…3ce8backed No | 57c | 18.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 60c | 16.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.