TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes39c4,816$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,960.6442036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x189e…89d9backed No62c3,015$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.229345.1%132 W · 161 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes41c507$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.331,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No3c499.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe549…0bcebacked Yes39c474.32$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.053537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No60c457.06$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.332,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No17c455.57$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.084,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No61c442$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.914,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0050…cad1backed No55c284.22$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.375350.9%27 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c265$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.511,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No59c257$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6342754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No52c254.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.064,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes43c244.38$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.624542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cae…559abacked No61c234$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.742857.1%16 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c228.24$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed Yes40c224.39$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.421264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc15…cca6backed Yes39c209.62$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.9526441.3%109 W · 155 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes41c197.09$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c183$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.675,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes41c174.4$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.92,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes40c161.98$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.572,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes64c160.01$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.4333561.5%206 W · 129 L-22.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x05c6…3eb7backed Yes76c157.32$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.472254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.52,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes38c150$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No8c136.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.022,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No24c115$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.619052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes45c111$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.0589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No59c108.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.32,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e34…224ebacked Yes68c100.62$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.697055.7%39 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf035…052abacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7ec…e53abacked No60c97.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.915553.5%83 W · 72 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes40c91.25$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.751,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b6…091abacked Yes41c89.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.96757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes44c88.79$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9931936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No61c87.16$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.931,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4673…b24abacked Yes46c84.78$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.782450%12 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x296e…0b9abacked Yes44c83.79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.995722.8%13 W · 44 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-37.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No17c76.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.766,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.853,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes41c74.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.42,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes45c74.69$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No19c69.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2266543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No57c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.52,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No58c68$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4526067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes45c66.66$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.661,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…3208backed Yes41c63.33$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2510436.5%38 W · 66 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3d…0a55backed Yes40c62.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.514434%49 W · 95 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c60.87$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.84,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed Yes38c56.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.241,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No60c56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.613444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes39c51.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.312,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40bb…567dbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2770148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x437b…95f5backed No60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3024546.9%115 W · 130 L-12.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.517255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.065448.1%26 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes37c49.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.162137.7%234 W · 387 L+0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes70c45.49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5676936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes39c44.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.979935.4%35 W · 64 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a8…552fbacked Yes42c42.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.933565.7%23 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2646148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No35c41.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.681,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfe7…88e7backed No61c40.97$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991850%9 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes46c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.87665.8%50 W · 26 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445f…cc13backed Yes39c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.36540%26 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No32c39.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x91c3…a2c3backed Yes40c37.53$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No50c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked No56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No62c35$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.754253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes75c34.25$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5697152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes66c32.07$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8540237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb34d…2a65backed Yes43c30.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.095724.6%14 W · 43 L-15.2wins-0.27per pick51cpaid-53.5%equal weight29-0.18 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.731766.9%212 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes47c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.946457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes65c28.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9cc…59abbacked No57c28.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4168867.2%462 W · 226 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed Yes40c27.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4216129.2%47 W · 114 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes80c26.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.421964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No57c26.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Yes42c25.6$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.854045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.524,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x219c…4a95backed Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15825%2 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes57c23.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.086,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No58c22.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1397570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No55c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.149,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c20.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.011,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.286952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc75…a085backed No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.87443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes67c19.46$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.512,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92aa…0341backed Yes54c18.92$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.757926.6%21 W · 58 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes60c18.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3710044%44 W · 56 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No60c18.3$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.053351.5%17 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick61cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd0ea…3ce8backed No57c18.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.313655.6%20 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No60c16.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.