Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x955bd578d6d2ea1a012e5d1512f7b842d7c88f2ae7c752ac50b84c660d5b68d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 42c | 2,262$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 48c | 1,014$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.64 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 23c | 532.5$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 40c | 522.11$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a3…28c4backed Yes | 43c | 457.19$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 45c | 367.35$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.12 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 365.58$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 361.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.58 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…7cafbacked Yes | 47c | 319.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 46c | 310.77$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 299$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 56c | 270.91$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.28 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 54c | 267$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 254.83$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 247.96$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 45c | 218$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 58c | 214.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.01 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 193$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 183$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 39c | 173.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 156.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 58c | 155$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 148.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 140.54$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 114.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 57c | 104.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 54c | 92.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 45c | 90.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 47c | 87.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 44c | 85.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 74.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 43c | 70.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 38c | 66.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 63c | 63.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 29c | 61.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 60.89$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 244 | 51.2%125 W · 119 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 36c | 56.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 53c | 53.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 46.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 46.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 42.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 41.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf7…b963backed Yes | 40c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 30c | 35.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe71f…b706backed Yes | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 31.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 30.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad95…bfeabacked Yes | 40c | 25.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 43c | 25.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 61c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 58c | 23.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 76c | 22.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 56c | 18.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.