TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,412
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$110,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,412 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes0c30,561$33 inLost-$33.1118214.8%27 W · 155 L+11.4wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+218.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c23,297$24 inLost-$23.96550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa4…ea64backed Yes0c14,272$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c6,849$23 inLost-$22.761664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa218…988cbacked Yes1c5,597$35 inLost-$3540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ba8…772bbacked Yes1c4,421$24 inLost-$23.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes0c4,061$11 inLost-$11.12283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-95.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes0c2,696$11 inLost-$10.731414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe304…cb09backed Yes1c2,604$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes1c2,429$19 inLost-$19.457317.8%13 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c2,088$26 inLost-$26.351,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bb3…727bbacked Yes2c1,924$38 inLost-$37.6360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Yes6c1,706$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes1c1,008$10 inLost-$10.431494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9b2…62f5backed Yes7c999.94$68 inLost-$6820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec3…e861backed Yes6c833.73$50 inLost-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c824.02$49 inLost-$49.3748224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes7c300$22 inLost-$21.81060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes7c271.9$18 inLost-$18.1822029.5%65 W · 155 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes4c256.05$10 inLost-$101650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes7c200$13 inLost-$13.410741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes7c197.11$14 inLost-$13.66311.1%7 W · 56 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+117.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.