TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$658,072
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$502,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $658,072 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2219…313fbacked Yes0c100,840$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe17a…a09ebacked Yes11c61,020$6,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,995.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefaf…d074backed Yes13c31,434$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c19,716$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.786883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e57…b75ebacked Yes9c19,051$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…0079backed Yes6c11,057$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.4350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2e…edd3backed Yes6c10,816$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80fd…fa76backed Yes11c10,613$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0292…1743backed Yes13c10,356$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714e…c623backed Yes2c9,563$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c9,554$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.22550%0 W · 55 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c9,010$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.3223225%58 W · 174 L-0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c7,075$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.137317.8%13 W · 60 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-60.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c5,284$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.244766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa991…8f9bbacked Yes12c4,955$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4fd…22e8backed Yes3c4,810$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca18…71b8backed Yes11c4,741$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c0…2ea0backed Yes11c4,569$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b6b…0dc7backed Yes7c4,401$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ec…2892backed Yes11c4,329$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1a…9983backed Yes9c4,200$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598c…f36bbacked Yes12c4,152$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x532e…c811backed Yes12c4,075$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaa8a…1843backed Yes5c3,963$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf07…661bbacked Yes6c3,771$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.1560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863d…8399backed Yes4c3,555$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.651020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa99e…03d7backed Yes11c3,422$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x273e…241ebacked Yes10c3,191$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes5c2,986$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.784139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad8…19b0backed Yes10c2,726$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c9a…fd53backed Yes8c2,704$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…2714backed Yes3c2,675$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf6f…1f62backed Yes13c2,673$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x902d…7991backed Yes8c2,591$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c82…12aabacked Yes4c2,560$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f0…e11ebacked Yes2c2,544$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.441414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4c…063bbacked Yes1c2,470$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2ae…fbf2backed Yes5c2,302$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5e…ac11backed Yes9c2,273$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd2…aeebbacked Yes11c2,237$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb235…f947backed Yes7c2,210$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b56…792dbacked Yes11c2,179$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…c46fbacked Yes9c2,139$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…e905backed Yes11c2,107$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c2,103$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.32344.3%10 W · 224 L+0.2wins0.00per pick4cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa4…ea64backed Yes10c2,101$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aae…87e9backed Yes8c2,095$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc428…ffe0backed Yes5c2,064$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf816…9455backed Yes7c1,962$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c1,924$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.021664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9ac…fa9ebacked Yes11c1,889$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd978…8bedbacked Yes13c1,853$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…eea0backed Yes8c1,800$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c1,798$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.22543.5%9 W · 245 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890d…dd4abacked Yes13c1,749$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8e…9494backed Yes11c1,737$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b0…d650backed Yes2c1,730$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.997570.7%53 W · 22 L+5.1wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8429…4d32backed Yes11c1,728$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc0…da46backed Yes3c1,700$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913d…4ea8backed Yes9c1,678$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes4c1,675$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.544922.4%11 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes3c1,674$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.63803.8%3 W · 77 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f31…64edbacked Yes12c1,667$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c1,638$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.711,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27d…5b52backed Yes8c1,625$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c16…9e04backed Yes6c1,603$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3a2…a3e0backed Yes59c1,590$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbafd…42a8backed Yes10c1,582$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes3c1,551$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.81152.6%3 W · 112 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1d6…3574backed Yes10c1,540$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd62e…bb2ebacked Yes9c1,532$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes4c1,487$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.67147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb3…727bbacked Yes7c1,447$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2d…a144backed Yes9c1,410$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc5a…cb1dbacked Yes7c1,385$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…077bbacked Yes7c1,326$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes3c1,308$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.54772.6%2 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4940…52efbacked Yes4c1,303$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.121414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-74.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab2…24ffbacked Yes8c1,301$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…6208backed Yes7c1,296$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7c…cf66backed Yes8c1,295$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes4c1,289$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.18806.3%5 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5777…3182backed Yes8c1,273$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes7c1,245$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1514947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x491e…30c0backed Yes12c1,237$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc687…0783backed Yes6c1,182$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes1c1,162$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.25283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-95.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3039…f3d0backed Yes8c1,128$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c1,067$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.961425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x783c…70bfbacked Yes9c1,066$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc600…e634backed Yes5c1,055$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,042$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.282117.1%15 W · 196 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb3…b9c5backed Yes9c1,038$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3813…de6ebacked Yes12c1,038$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e3…3448backed Yes9c1,014$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ee…776ebacked Yes8c1,003$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5cb…bf58backed Yes10c1,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768e…b13dbacked Yes11c999.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e4…5fcbbacked Yes6c993.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7507…2087backed Yes10c955.6$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.