World Politics · resolved market
Will Juan Carlos Hidalgo Bogantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b4db6b56938c3f4971282e0fa066be99d13fc7ccc71bfd1bf0097bfee4d2198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $351,971
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $223,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $351,971 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4074…0a67backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,507$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 18,228$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 12,824$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…22e8backed Yes | 1c | 7,254$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6b…4d76backed Yes | 2c | 7,133$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 0c | 6,915$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 6,890$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,210$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…661bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,130$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f0…f89dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 0c | 4,146$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc6…839cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,690$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,312$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 3,285$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…7af4backed Yes | 4c | 3,250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…727bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,210$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f2…4556backed Yes | 1c | 3,128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…9847backed Yes | 2c | 3,090$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…ffe0backed Yes | 1c | 3,042$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,892$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc0…da46backed Yes | 2c | 2,882$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,422$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,416$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…c0e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,409$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…b88bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,390$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 2,379$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273e…241ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,311$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,175$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d74fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,963$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…7828backed Yes | 1c | 1,918$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb14…452bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,792$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…6208backed Yes | 1c | 1,780$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39a…6629backed Yes | 1c | 1,688$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 1,665$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…12aabacked Yes | 2c | 1,662$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…c9a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,574$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,454$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7815…5400backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…19b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,076$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…a52abacked Yes | 1c | 759.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 2c | 704.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 624.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juan Carlos Hidalgo Bogantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?this page
- Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia Vanessa Dobles Camargo win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Claudio Alberto Alpízar Otoya win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Fernando Zamora Castellanos win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Gerardo Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?Yes won
- Will Luis Esteban Amador Jiménez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Natalia Díaz Quintana win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Walter Rubén Hernández Juárez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.