World Politics · resolved market
Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ffb4b69e869730e0b59edaaa58ea9743f26f1ad162f1dcf762a1c896f6c8601
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 0c | 30,360$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,844$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 11c | 8,176$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.87 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…31abbacked Yes | 1c | 6,885$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb3…119dbacked Yes | 13c | 6,625$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa7…5083backed Yes | 4c | 5,595$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fd…22e8backed Yes | 7c | 2,722$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 2,378$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,331$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…8399backed Yes | 18c | 2,281$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba8…772bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,006$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,943$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 1,880$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.19 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…8449backed Yes | 8c | 1,504$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb7…3297backed Yes | 8c | 1,472$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc0…da46backed Yes | 4c | 1,375$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…cfb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,326$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…727bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,321$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 1,235$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,183$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,166$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 77 | 2.6%2 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf07…661bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,024$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…2168backed Yes | 5c | 940.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 865.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2135…66adbacked Yes | 18c | 852.81$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 805.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 722.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…fc0fbacked Yes | 14c | 703.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f1…2939backed Yes | 2c | 658.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 656.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…12aabacked Yes | 9c | 650.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6b…4d76backed Yes | 4c | 603.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x493e…7af4backed Yes | 5c | 574.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 3c | 541.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…a52abacked Yes | 6c | 541.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821c…d6d7backed Yes | 4c | 414.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e4…5fcbbacked Yes | 6c | 381.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6908…cb52backed Yes | 4c | 348.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…091fbacked Yes | 8c | 325$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7b…b568backed Yes | 12c | 306.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…5c07backed Yes | 5c | 284.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99db…0201backed Yes | 7c | 268.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa565…0f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 265.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fd…2ddbbacked Yes | 14c | 219.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…ffe0backed Yes | 9c | 212.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93a…f463backed Yes | 9c | 176.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd06…e68bbacked Yes | 9c | 160.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 150.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3933…03b2backed Yes | 8c | 147.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 137.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…e861backed Yes | 15c | 130.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…8bbdbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7489…23d4backed Yes | 19c | 106.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a9…a122backed Yes | 12c | 99.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee1…7999backed Yes | 21c | 86.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will José Miguel Aguilar Berrocal win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?this page
- Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia Vanessa Dobles Camargo win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Claudio Alberto Alpízar Otoya win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Fernando Zamora Castellanos win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Gerardo Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Carlos Hidalgo Bogantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?Yes won
- Will Luis Esteban Amador Jiménez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Natalia Díaz Quintana win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Walter Rubén Hernández Juárez win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
- Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.