Middle East · resolved market
Khamenei public appearance by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6728a778a9da6b4fd85864d17c8aa9aae705e3f7e052e19c11125c60a157e6e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x832b…86eebacked Yes | 2c | 1,124$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 15c | 920.02$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 403.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…d8c6backed Yes | 36c | 346$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.3 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 13c | 337.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2499…b542backed No | 65c | 308.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.2 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…80febacked Yes | 16c | 255$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed Yes | 10c | 249.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 13c | 218.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 15c | 196.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 58c | 180.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 177$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 163.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…8119backed No | 68c | 146.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588c…1bf4backed No | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 127.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 121.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 114.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 109.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 40c | 99.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…f0b5backed No | 70c | 96.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…8b54backed No | 69c | 85.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…102bbacked No | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 31c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 54c | 74.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 54c | 64.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd9…43f5backed Yes | 43c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d8d…b8eebacked Yes | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed Yes | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…38d4backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…0681backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe54…0268backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…5fadbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db6…4894backed Yes | 54c | 39.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…c57fbacked No | 57c | 36.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…d1a5backed No | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee0…3777backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…c333backed Yes | 42c | 30.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 60c | 28.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…5f26backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +110.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc7…8903backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 76c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.