Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0210351712833c74d663bc8960e9fd82b04afa9215f6f1dc71a09ec3114cb998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 46c | 8,746$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.69 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 24c | 6,150$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,453.8 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 4,737$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.27 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 68c | 4,544$3,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.97 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,417$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.63 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 65c | 3,075$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 40c | 2,589$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.56 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,428$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.89 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,291$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.34 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 45c | 2,075$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.33 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,903$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 46c | 1,900$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.13 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 1,811$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 54c | 1,700$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.3 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 44c | 1,654$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.24 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 1,608$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.59 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 61c | 1,500$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.32 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 6c | 1,430$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.85 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,342$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.02 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,261$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 1,231$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.14 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 43c | 1,219$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.6 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 56c | 1,216$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.81 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 1,136$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 47c | 1,086$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.22 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,062$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 55c | 1,060$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.68 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 58c | 1,040$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 72c | 932.3$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.89 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…dc20backed Yes | 18c | 862.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 847.67$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.46 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 53c | 830.47$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.71 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 40c | 824.78$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.78 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5c…ab00backed Yes | 18c | 760.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 14c | 757.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 72c | 735.38$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.67 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 69c | 721.89$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.86 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 72c | 687.26$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.33 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 44c | 682.9$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 27c | 671.87$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.16 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 629.59$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.45 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…353cbacked Yes | 54c | 626.61$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.22 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 60c | 617$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.99 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 53c | 589$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 52c | 576.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 566.4$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.15 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 58c | 525.86$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.76 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 62c | 504.85$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.81 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 47c | 502.86$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.62 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 58c | 482.19$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.03 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 65c | 461.59$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 23c | 456.35$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 62c | 449.86$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.35 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa980…583ebacked Yes | 14c | 440.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 29c | 379.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…7cc7backed Yes | 34c | 376.17$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 19c | 370.37$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 26c | 353.22$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 17c | 339.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…c787backed No | 68c | 327.68$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 326.53$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 40c | 324.39$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 19c | 320$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 59c | 300$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 22c | 299.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 67c | 299.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 63c | 292.91$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.28 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…97f8backed Yes | 17c | 290.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 289.93$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…9287backed Yes | 69c | 284.06$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 68c | 253.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.54 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 252.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 62c | 237.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 31c | 223.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 74c | 223.51$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 47c | 220.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.08 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 71c | 211.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 47c | 210.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 35c | 200.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.56 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 35c | 193.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 23c | 192.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 33c | 185.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec08…7083backed Yes | 60c | 178.21$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 169.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 32c | 168.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 30c | 166$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 50c | 165$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked No | 41c | 164.35$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.24 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 52c | 160.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 19c | 155.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 155$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…eb66backed Yes | 69c | 151.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 50c | 140.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 50c | 138.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.