Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b86130af0e76ad32f2123d62287ad03f55ef72c03723444b9dd56ea22602068
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,800$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,970$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 5,161$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.72 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 26c | 3,383$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.85 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 3c | 2,600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 1,329$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.67 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,326$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.33 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,166$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,052$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 74c | 999.81$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.1 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 903.53$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.21 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 12c | 798.75$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 13c | 597.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…e74cbacked Yes | 22c | 540.46$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 76c | 525.13$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 24c | 483.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.3 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 482.35$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.26 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 15c | 389.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 8c | 388.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 18c | 349.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.63 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 24c | 344.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 24c | 313.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.19 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 24c | 307.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 286.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…9b51backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8599…ebe7backed Yes | 29c | 245.07$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 71c | 233.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…86f9backed Yes | 21c | 222.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 15c | 210.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 201.47$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 29c | 192.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 185$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 182.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462e…a612backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +54%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821b…8b2bbacked Yes | 30c | 146.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdd…4648backed Yes | 24c | 142.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 15c | 128.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 112$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 109.61$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 19c | 105.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…232bbacked Yes | 27c | 103.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed No | 77c | 101.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…9118backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed No | 69c | 80.65$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 18c | 80.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc36…18d2backed Yes | 27c | 80.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…6f33backed Yes | 25c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 70.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524b…a34dbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 21c | 63.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked Yes | 20c | 58.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 22c | 56.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 31c | 51.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad54…006abacked No | 77c | 49.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…ece1backed No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31f2…f75fbacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…696abacked Yes | 27c | 37.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 71c | 25.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 20.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de4…9f53backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…607cbacked No | 74c | 18.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.