Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xed29c749be0ca5d257acaf0117e54feeef7799d3b4a182e9c91a02cad6614ab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,831$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 10,300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 18c | 5,263$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.02 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 4,229$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 4,005$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 3c | 3,871$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.86 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,191$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 5c | 2,859$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 13c | 2,847$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.12 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 2,350$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.86 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,261$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,723$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.23 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,720$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.67 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,700$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.97 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,599$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,476$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.41 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,470$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,450$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.24 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 1,298$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 10c | 1,149$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 1,125$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.35 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 5c | 1,044$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5734…06babacked Yes | 6c | 1,020$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +64%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,013$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 3c | 1,006$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,001$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 998.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 968.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.32 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 900.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 25c | 831.6$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.35 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 24c | 830.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2955…7639backed Yes | 24c | 819.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 20c | 762.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 18c | 714$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.56 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 5c | 681.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…353cbacked Yes | 18c | 669.15$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 600.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 550$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 22c | 507.69$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 18c | 506.37$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked No | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 21c | 500$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 495.59$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 79c | 407.8$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.01 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 3c | 405.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 25c | 400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 76c | 369.04$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.05 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…83d6backed No | 77c | 337$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 9c | 330.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…cbadbacked Yes | 6c | 299.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 78 | 26.9%21 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes | 34c | 298.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 18c | 253.77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b44…9287backed Yes | 17c | 239$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 21c | 223.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 76c | 199.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 23c | 177.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 6c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 16c | 154.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 79c | 145.52$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 8c | 145$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…936fbacked No | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f02…0b2ebacked Yes | 23c | 107.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 20c | 107$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…3741backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…d9b1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…4f97backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…0124backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…01d9backed No | 76c | 97.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 26c | 90.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…3c89backed Yes | 31c | 81.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 23c | 73.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…ece1backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 23c | 64.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…073dbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed No | 76c | 62.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc1…53babacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 24c | 43.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…4bc3backed No | 76c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…e3e3backed No | 77c | 23.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +90%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked No | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.