Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41335f8c458b41c53a85e5492d52026cd311b8d430f8d0f3801a556379638335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $165,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 237 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 9,392$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 41c | 6,351$2,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.66 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 53c | 4,066$2,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…a51bbacked No | 15c | 3,984$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 27c | 3,923$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.71 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5285…1cc5backed No | 64c | 3,776$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.22 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 30c | 2,971$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.15 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 2,690$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.5 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,591$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.56 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 62c | 2,411$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.32 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,405$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.77 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 53c | 2,245$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.54 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 21c | 2,007$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.84 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 58c | 1,939$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.9 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,912$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.82 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,911$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.2 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,803$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.36 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,801$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.2 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 29c | 1,757$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.72 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 1,742$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.84 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 42c | 1,732$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.7 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,526$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.92 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 21c | 1,516$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.99 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8040…c787backed No | 65c | 1,500$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 23c | 1,281$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.44 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 1,255$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.71 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 30c | 1,230$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.09 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 45c | 1,189$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.22 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 37c | 1,126$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 8c | 1,110$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 22c | 1,104$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.04 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 17c | 1,094$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.19 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked Yes | 29c | 1,053$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.38 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 71c | 1,017$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.29 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 33c | 994.27$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.3 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 22c | 966.69$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.43 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 47c | 961.38$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.38 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 54c | 895.89$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.56 | 112 | 8%9 W · 103 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -80%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 847.66$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.81 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 20c | 845.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.3 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 50c | 828.48$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.18 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 19c | 776.82$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.49 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 762.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.43 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 14c | 736.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.43 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 71c | 710.84$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.7 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…34ffbacked Yes | 68c | 681.1$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 76c | 674.66$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.17 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 16c | 662.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.86 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 659.22$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.75 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 654.23$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 16c | 633.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.59 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 616.86$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.86 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 55c | 607.15$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.63 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 600.02$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.91 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 60c | 595.68$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.63 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…5c02backed Yes | 17c | 580.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.94 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 52c | 558.16$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 11c | 546.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.08 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 21c | 535.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 24c | 529.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 53c | 528.98$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.62 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 20c | 512.14$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.12 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 11c | 500.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.75 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed No | 16c | 499.76$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae4…4c34backed Yes | 15c | 479.44$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67b…af43backed Yes | 31c | 477.17$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.17 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 38c | 472.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 54c | 462$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 60c | 445.23$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.15 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 47c | 421.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…4a7dbacked No | 62c | 405.19$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 80c | 397.6$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.08 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 45c | 391$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 16c | 378.37$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.76 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ad…f1c0backed No | 77c | 362.98$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.49 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 67c | 341.64$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 31c | 340.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 29c | 335.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.79 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 327.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 27c | 323$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.35 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 76c | 320$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 32c | 313.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.68 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 8c | 310.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.77 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed No | 16c | 299.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 47c | 295$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.24 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…8b85backed Yes | 24c | 294.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.7 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cd…227dbacked No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +233%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 18c | 272.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.43 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 46c | 270.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 50c | 270.39$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.39 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 264.08$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.48 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 11c | 248.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.36 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 42c | 244.29$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.15 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 41c | 244.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.22 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes | 80c | 227.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 51c | 224.63$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d0…f62cbacked Yes | 70c | 224.6$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ab…021ebacked Yes | 78c | 218.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 17c | 217.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.65 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.