Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe96f0be48ce15c1d56a061b593e99e319d7814ef6138d749b95481200c677e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $95,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 22c | 10,083$2,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 21c | 6,466$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 28c | 5,113$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.16 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,863$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.81 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 29c | 3,794$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.3 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 2c | 2,396$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 21c | 2,264$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.69 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 21c | 2,124$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 1,758$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.28 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 14c | 1,637$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.06 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 1,630$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 1,626$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.06 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 10c | 1,471$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 9c | 1,433$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 25c | 1,276$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.26 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 15c | 1,261$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.11 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 31c | 1,074$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 73c | 1,064$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.71 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.38 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 36c | 997.17$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.74 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 22c | 992.94$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.8 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 12c | 976.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 958.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 18c | 823.01$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 69c | 773.86$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.33 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 71c | 745.74$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 7c | 725.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 42c | 697.37$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.78 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 10c | 688.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4982…fe01backed No | 67c | 650.38$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.27 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 25c | 623.68$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 77c | 603.38$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.76 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 27c | 535.14$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.75 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 17c | 515.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 33c | 505$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.81 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 22c | 501.82$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.49 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 499.93$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.78 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 480.4$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.03 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 27c | 453.92$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 18c | 440.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90d7…5cb7backed Yes | 5c | 418$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 66 | 21.2%14 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…9118backed No | 76c | 399.99$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed No | 76c | 399.98$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.99 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 71c | 352.34$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.34 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 310$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 68c | 304.55$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 79c | 302.75$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 20c | 297.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 73c | 294.9$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.73 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 36c | 279.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 265.75$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.88 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 73c | 264.03$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.06 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd7…b2dbbacked Yes | 16c | 263.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +150.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…4cc9backed Yes | 23c | 262.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 195 | 27.7%54 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…c200backed Yes | 22c | 250$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 158 | 20.9%33 W · 125 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 65c | 241.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 240.08$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 49c | 237.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 19c | 236.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 30c | 231.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 40c | 226.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe122…0b62backed Yes | 13c | 222.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cf…2c9ebacked Yes | 23c | 210$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed No | 75c | 205.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 74c | 204$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 201.16$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…e2a4backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…fe91backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…6f38backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…0de2backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb77f…8b69backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…3fcdbacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…bacdbacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…8d6abacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…3741backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…d9b1backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 39c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 41c | 199.96$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 53c | 199.89$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…5137backed Yes | 26c | 198.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…6be1backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 170$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.91 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 167.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.65 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 38c | 164.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 28c | 155.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 137.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.01 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 134.21$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 26c | 133.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 14c | 132.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 127.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.