Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4df34e68d3e7dd5c3c83d1a34a496df87a84c3b5eca66a250834a836cbda079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,182
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,370$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 13,329$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…6c75backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +429.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 15c | 3,966$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.81 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 3,702$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,513$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 6c | 1,959$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,949$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.37 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 14c | 1,869$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.74 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 8c | 1,194$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No | 78c | 942.61$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.68 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 749.3$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.32 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 520.33$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 16c | 520$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3342…35c2backed Yes | 12c | 429.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes | 20c | 407.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 11c | 389.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 365.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 21c | 341.88$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 8c | 273.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…6be1backed Yes | 25c | 242.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2c…465dbacked Yes | 24c | 215$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…86f9backed Yes | 15c | 210$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 14c | 209.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7de…537abacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 11c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes | 15c | 134.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 70c | 134$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 32c | 100.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked No | 72c | 99.82$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…f025backed Yes | 64c | 86.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 79c | 85.73$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 16c | 84.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8d4dbacked Yes | 34c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked Yes | 32c | 61.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 19c | 57.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e5a7backed No | 78c | 31.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed No | 79c | 25.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e3cabacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.