World Politics · resolved market
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0e842b31506fda8023595ae777aa10df28ecd9c22c1f1409a7f8712eda7e879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $380,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $171,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $380,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 42,045$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…cf8abacked Yes | 0c | 28,212$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 22,639$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,594$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…2b04backed Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 11,403$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…ce12backed Yes | 0c | 10,752$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…4d64backed Yes | 0c | 9,949$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e4…dc76backed Yes | 0c | 9,467$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca10…617cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,731$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf80…2c83backed Yes | 0c | 4,827$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 0c | 4,519$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -95.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,124$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…594bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,049$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…a184backed Yes | 0c | 3,966$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7827…6a6fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,588$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 3,283$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9de…a52abacked Yes | 0c | 3,199$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…bb3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,745$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7159…063abacked Yes | 1c | 2,695$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e30…86e5backed Yes | 0c | 2,677$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c35…d839backed Yes | 0c | 2,505$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1b…ee51backed Yes | 8c | 2,490$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,424$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6754…fc3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,416$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 1c | 1,249$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…b26bbacked Yes | 3c | 600$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc2…46c4backed Yes | 5c | 267.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 202.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?this page
- Will Lê Hoài Trung be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?No won
- Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?Yes won
- Will Nguyễn Hòa Bình be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?No won
- Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?No won
- Will Phạm Thị Thanh Trà be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?No won
- Will Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.