Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3dd95f5997140a841cfe2fa9fb3b2af0f35d1e6f8c82188999e176a2aa0922e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 283 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb783…1a78backed Yes | 50c | 14,579$7,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,262.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 39c | 8,372$3,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,114.54 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked No | 50c | 7,898$3,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,964.02 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 21c | 6,142$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.79 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a8a…4abdbacked Yes | 63c | 5,933$3,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 39c | 4,584$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780.05 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 19c | 4,293$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.07 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 40c | 4,220$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.52 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 32c | 4,096$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 30c | 4,092$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.99 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 38c | 3,470$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.32 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed No | 24c | 3,418$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.15 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 12c | 3,348$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.39 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 25c | 3,114$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.41 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 30c | 2,989$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.37 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 65c | 2,899$1,887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.62 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 45c | 2,878$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.64 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 61c | 2,761$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.02 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 2,722$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.23 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 37c | 2,622$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.55 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 6c | 2,251$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.39 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed No | 46c | 2,167$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 39c | 2,100$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.26 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 31c | 2,082$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.55 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 30c | 2,054$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.61 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,050$1,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.81 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 13c | 1,530$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.87 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 1,512$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.26 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 60c | 1,482$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.72 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 24c | 1,433$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.01 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 43c | 1,351$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.33 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 52c | 1,349$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.74 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 34c | 1,199$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.14 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 32c | 1,149$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.98 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 37c | 1,137$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.67 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 55c | 1,041$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.22 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed Yes | 41c | 960.55$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.08 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 42c | 930$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.4 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 22c | 930$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.96 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 923.25$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.99 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 64c | 920.54$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.81 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 60c | 880.49$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.71 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 38c | 844.75$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.58 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…5c80backed No | 7c | 843.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +246.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 53c | 820.41$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed No | 28c | 805.56$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.97 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 38c | 779.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.25 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 73c | 776.99$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 67c | 776.81$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.98 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 62c | 774.01$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.9 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 769$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.7 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 764.3$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.92 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 54c | 761.57$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.18 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 34c | 748.03$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.28 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…d237backed No | 67c | 736.08$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 20c | 700.22$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 27c | 697.62$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d63…1b7fbacked No | 65c | 694$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 68c | 664.66$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.55 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 56c | 649.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 67c | 649.91$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.95 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 42c | 640.27$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.1 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 41c | 636.41$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.41 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 631.38$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.65 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes | 50c | 610$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 49c | 608.57$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 68c | 593.96$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.11 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 51c | 581.88$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.01 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked No | 14c | 557.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 42c | 515.88$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.16 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 14c | 499.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffdd…40debacked Yes | 80c | 494.58$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 65c | 467.36$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.36 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 32c | 465.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 64c | 442$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.12 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 30c | 428.05$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 416.37$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.92 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 39c | 402.76$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.14 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed No | 37c | 400$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 76c | 399.7$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.35 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 397.8$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.55 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed No | 27c | 395.47$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 25c | 378.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 376.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 44c | 370.79$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.32 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 35c | 350.42$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed No | 41c | 349.98$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 40c | 348.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.55 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…2095backed Yes | 40c | 334.18$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 73c | 325.71$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 39c | 325.12$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.38 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 38c | 323.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.96 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 39c | 320.97$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 63c | 318.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.7 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 68c | 317.83$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.16 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 58c | 317.75$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 133 | 15.8%21 W · 112 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 33c | 307.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 73c | 300$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a280backed Yes | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.