Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44b922b0bbf866b267016c82079b1e4a00b8917de5ff626d14e607da2dc8feaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,728
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $126,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,728 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 0c | 5,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 42c | 4,575$1,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.2 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 20c | 4,002$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.85 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 22c | 4,000$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.77 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,887$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.79 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,743$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.83 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 3,302$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.01 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 26c | 3,153$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.42 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 2,911$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 19c | 2,756$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.92 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 17c | 2,710$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…2095backed Yes | 41c | 2,504$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.44 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 39c | 2,456$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 38c | 2,430$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.74 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…a079backed No | 70c | 2,425$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.84 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 40c | 2,362$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.41 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,200$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.95 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 64c | 2,154$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.72 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 33c | 2,050$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.46 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 34c | 1,936$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 30c | 1,775$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.56 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 29c | 1,679$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.75 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,657$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.89 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked No | 57c | 1,600$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 1,541$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.19 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,538$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.6 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,532$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.42 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 62c | 1,518$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.45 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 10c | 1,510$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 40c | 1,424$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.36 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 34c | 1,380$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.85 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,375$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.14 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 30c | 1,338$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.73 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes | 3c | 1,293$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 35c | 1,266$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.45 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 32c | 1,146$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.83 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 28c | 1,139$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.44 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 12c | 1,101$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 29c | 1,094$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.78 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…38afbacked Yes | 14c | 1,009$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.3 | 128 | 25.8%33 W · 95 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,006$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 39c | 962.95$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.53 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 41c | 950$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.8 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 19c | 946.62$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 52c | 790.28$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.31 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 45c | 786.86$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.66 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 767.05$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.77 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 32c | 745.99$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.29 | 211 | 22.3%47 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 39c | 739.7$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.89 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 35c | 722.81$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.09 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 57c | 710.78$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 16c | 658.6$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 638.8$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.18 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 45c | 613.47$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.44 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 17c | 610.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 50c | 600$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 68c | 599.94$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.59 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 37c | 578.23$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.31 | 386 | 48.2%186 W · 200 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 555.88$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.01 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 19c | 533.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 487.09$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.69 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 70c | 456.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 52c | 456$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…8ef6backed Yes | 10c | 436.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 22c | 427.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 155 | 19.4%30 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…4226backed Yes | 7c | 413.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 23c | 411.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 399.21$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 22c | 383.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 50c | 382.5$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.77 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 19c | 367.42$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 365.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 31c | 344.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 325.12$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.41 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 43c | 321.25$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 145 | 13.8%20 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 320.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 23c | 318.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.17 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 52c | 312.36$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.17 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 43c | 309.8$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.7 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 17c | 302.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 56c | 285.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 24c | 276.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 18c | 276.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 41c | 274.29$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 264.03$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 248.72$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 35c | 246.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.12 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 27c | 240.62$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 239.93$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.13 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.