Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $130 January 5-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7474e19db7a4cfac535f8daf060c3d549c379609f9043335b30dc6dda88a7db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 14c | 9,724$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.02 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,426$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 15c | 3,092$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.47 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 15c | 2,318$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.59 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 1,676$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 1,586$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 17cpaid | -96.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 1,358$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.32 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 9c | 987$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 18c | 857.23$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.25 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 9c | 846.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…23c7backed Yes | 63c | 794.38$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Yes | 16c | 704.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.23 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a4…a548backed Yes | 19c | 676.06$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 16c | 326.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 34c | 310$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.8 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 18c | 270$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…bab2backed Yes | 11c | 267.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691b…d267backed Yes | 21c | 217.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9576…0841backed Yes | 41c | 188.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2f…1e45backed Yes | 24c | 177$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…38cebacked No | 44c | 151.28$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2210…94e9backed Yes | 30c | 124$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedad…17b2backed Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Yes | 14c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x846f…750ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf4…cc11backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9203…ab86backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…e3dbbacked Yes | 13c | 96.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 29cpaid | +356.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…772abacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…bfacbacked Yes | 15c | 86.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 34cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8df9backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 54c | 46.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked No | 45c | 42.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315a…4b32backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…df6dbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec9…e7abbacked Yes | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $130 January 5-11?this page
- Will Solana dip to $110 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana dip to $120 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana dip to $70 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana dip to $90 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana reach $150 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana reach $160 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana reach $170 January 5-11?No won
- Will Solana reach $190 January 5-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.