Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe801fe2ce6c3222b5f8e98da7cc4c41336fc81d4d04351eec805e1cfd2b6f7d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,882
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $235,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,882 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 3c | 20,048$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.67 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 34c | 5,563$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,662.82 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 19c | 5,003$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.9 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 56c | 3,662$2,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.69 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 3,458$1,639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,639.21 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 36c | 3,268$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.89 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 63c | 3,210$2,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,027.71 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 51c | 2,824$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.91 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 46c | 2,658$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.19 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…1a78backed Yes | 39c | 2,556$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 37c | 2,496$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.74 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed No | 42c | 2,339$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.65 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 52c | 2,177$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.7 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 47c | 2,099$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.73 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 31c | 2,021$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.52 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 64c | 2,017$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.34 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.16 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 7c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 43c | 1,954$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.05 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 54c | 1,915$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.03 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 60c | 1,580$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.24 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 3c | 1,500$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 36c | 1,438$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.18 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 1,436$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.8 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 42c | 1,435$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.27 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 28c | 1,414$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.66 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9592backed Yes | 61c | 1,390$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e2…0124backed No | 60c | 1,370$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…b9ccbacked No | 2c | 1,363$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 14c | 1,348$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.64 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 51c | 1,306$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.99 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 1,283$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.29 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 56c | 1,253$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.13 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 1,243$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.3 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 36c | 1,214$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.5 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781d…201bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,204$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes | 38c | 1,155$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.65 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…fe91backed No | 77c | 1,113$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860.36 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb77f…8b69backed No | 65c | 1,112$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.77 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.49 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,100$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.2 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…3741backed No | 70c | 1,081$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.93 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 50c | 1,032$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.82 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 61c | 1,007$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.12 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 997.1$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.69 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…936fbacked No | 61c | 968.99$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 30c | 957.18$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.18 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 66c | 927.58$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.67 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked No | 33c | 911.46$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.72 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 34c | 906.31$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.91 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked No | 53c | 902.95$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.03 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…01d9backed No | 69c | 900$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…d0e7backed No | 65c | 889.11$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.23 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…fd50backed Yes | 37c | 869.8$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.69 | 156 | 31.4%49 W · 107 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 25c | 843.87$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.28 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 54c | 836.4$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.37 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 32c | 814.34$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.07 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 58c | 775.89$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.53 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 68c | 761$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 22c | 747.51$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.22 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 53c | 734.91$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.49 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 62c | 720$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.79 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked No | 77c | 713.99$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.81 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked No | 70c | 701$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.37 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 78c | 700$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.31 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…e2a4backed No | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6de…8d6abacked No | 70c | 693.89$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.75 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f8…08d2backed No | 59c | 684.05$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 17c | 682.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.65 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0630…3fcdbacked No | 56c | 679.85$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…d9b1backed No | 66c | 677$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.73 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca24…686bbacked No | 46c | 669.15$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.39 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1371…1097backed Yes | 27c | 628.87$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d7…a8cebacked Yes | 39c | 626.55$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 35c | 622.82$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.09 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 602.68$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.64 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace0…6ccdbacked Yes | 65c | 554.51$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 43c | 551.76$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.29 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes | 65c | 547.6$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 30c | 536.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.05 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 7c | 529.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 40c | 529.96$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.48 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 36c | 523.59$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…d422backed Yes | 30c | 515$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.55 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 33c | 513.99$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.78 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 35c | 505.3$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.3 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 25c | 505$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.6 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.7 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…8853backed No | 49c | 495.87$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 484.18$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.6 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d74…fb6cbacked No | 50c | 480$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 41c | 475.12$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 75c | 474.93$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.95 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 42c | 471.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.32 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 43c | 463.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 17c | 454.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.91 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de6…9933backed No | 52c | 449.86$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.93 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.