Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbf273b0f232242d87fcd2f42fdbbf7e79fdc8311d96281e878ad3155913756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $215,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $172,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $215,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 26,897$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 2c | 14,413$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 7,130$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.2 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,715$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 6,257$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,555$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,369$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,089$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 4,797$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.76 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,766$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.35 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,218$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.36 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 1c | 2,855$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 2,371$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.56 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 5c | 2,271$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,232$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,040$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.98 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 5c | 1,952$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 4c | 1,947$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 1,810$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.97 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.4 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3758…5c70backed Yes | 7c | 1,484$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,478$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,275$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 1,265$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 1,201$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 5c | 1,189$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,186$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,180$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 1,114$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,085$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 3c | 1,009$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 3c | 998.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 962.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 6c | 733.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 135 | 17.8%24 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 668.81$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 15c | 661.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 3c | 519.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 499.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 497.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 16c | 464.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 11c | 416.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…7d13backed Yes | 5c | 374.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 9c | 367.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 4c | 359.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 3c | 346.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 11c | 331.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 15c | 310.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 7c | 304.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 4c | 298.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 4c | 293.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 9c | 218.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 14c | 207.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa123…2c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 115.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked Yes | 15c | 115.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 11c | 93.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.