Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b88c003794375488914639c6d170bc9a3cc92ef236273608fb01f262b1aa50a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 3c | 21,142$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.56 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 46c | 3,331$1,537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.5 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 52c | 3,238$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.67 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 41c | 2,505$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,021.34 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 38c | 2,161$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.52 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 45c | 1,835$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.44 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 63c | 1,828$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.09 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 23c | 1,750$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.96 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 60c | 1,670$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.15 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…ff26backed Yes | 2c | 1,520$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 2cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 28c | 1,436$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.62 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d3…71cfbacked No | 75c | 1,429$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.56 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 75c | 1,417$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.1 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 52c | 1,327$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.11 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 23c | 1,325$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 58c | 1,308$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 1,265$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.67 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,237$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.99 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 38c | 1,099$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.43 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,064$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.1 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes | 51c | 1,005$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.51 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 41c | 1,003$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.81 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 999$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.38 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 997.1$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.33 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 48c | 966.19$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.15 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 42c | 887.23$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.33 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes | 15c | 886.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 51c | 885.07$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.12 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 39c | 825.78$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.61 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb783…1a78backed Yes | 69c | 806.66$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 37c | 783.11$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.98 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 66c | 758.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.54 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 43c | 732.19$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.23 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 49c | 731.62$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.31 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 64c | 726.89$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.78 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 51c | 715.08$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.44 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 4c | 700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 17c | 700$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 3c | 699.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 10c | 650$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 16c | 644$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 597.95$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.35 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 40c | 580.11$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 31c | 567.93$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.49 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 42c | 539.9$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.72 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a4…8baebacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 494.18$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.58 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…c61ebacked Yes | 3c | 471.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked Yes | 2c | 471.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 63c | 467.24$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.36 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 33c | 428.09$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2cf…cd1fbacked No | 71c | 425.15$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.69 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 41c | 414.36$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.52 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 51c | 384.11$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.26 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed No | 45c | 380.46$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 378.29$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 58c | 372.48$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 33c | 362.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 51c | 357.51$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 47c | 325.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.33 | 149 | 13.4%20 W · 129 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…4882backed Yes | 58c | 320.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 56c | 314.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6977…936fbacked Yes | 76c | 305.93$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 8c | 305.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -83%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 18c | 302.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe953…a4f9backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 51c | 300$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 6c | 299.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 33c | 290.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…4c45backed Yes | 56c | 279$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.35 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…4f97backed Yes | 75c | 267.11$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.53 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 251.89$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.39 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 28c | 247.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.85 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 240$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.33 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 15c | 234.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 233.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 32c | 230$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 220.23$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 54c | 209.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 201.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 22c | 200.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…be66backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 52c | 198.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 74c | 167.68$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 167.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac4…1819backed Yes | 41c | 161.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 30c | 161.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 57c | 159.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…5c80backed No | 62c | 157.83$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +246.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.