TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,992

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a43…b7bdbacked No19c10,894$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,116.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb04…ec13backed Yes80c7,311$5,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.232536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes65c6,751$4,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,357.494314%6 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1f…ec98backed No44c6,269$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.141233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e8…5c8cbacked No22c4,010$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.83156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes66c3,395$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.884751.1%24 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+38.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x53bf…bc10backed Yes63c2,339$1,478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+124.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No21c2,117$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.666732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes77c962.25$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.446731.3%21 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-50.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2738…6412backed Yes60c899.99$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes79c893.93$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.322030%6 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf19f…008abacked No23c764.61$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No19c669.29$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.771,3938%111 W · 1,282 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked Yes80c650$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1303100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+31%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes63c566.98$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.981952.6%10 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes65c566.12$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.312161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes78c564.12$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-63%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x77e5…ec41backed Yes68c505.81$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.522556%14 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+109.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No28c496.31$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.8250633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes64c460.83$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.843655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+32.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c87…b2c6backed Yes77c451.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.47540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c443.78$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef63…4cccbacked No30c434.62$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.47728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8266…c472backed Yes65c426.37$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.021952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf244…beddbacked Yes60c417.78$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.783461.8%21 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No17c409.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.06160%0 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6354…2b6bbacked Yes77c400$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked Yes42c355.11$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.111827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-49.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes49c345$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.123041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe12…07cfbacked No39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171361.5%8 W · 5 L+4.1wins+0.32per pick30cpaid+205.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0207…711dbacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes74c234.96$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.091457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No29c224.39$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.963644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No18c210.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7615641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x519a…1551backed No31c205.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.642030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc443…bbdbbacked Yes73c190$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked Yes80c186.25$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.251485.7%12 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick74cpaid+17%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes77c184.3$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.0910632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed No13c180$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef4…3c7ebacked Yes60c165.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x216f…9b1ebacked No14c157$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ed…e878backed No14c140.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes51c140$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.957032.9%23 W · 47 L-14.8wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-42.5%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xd771…489fbacked Yes69c140$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x65ea…223fbacked No13c131$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed No23c125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd6a…58a5backed No12c122.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed No13c115.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-47.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87f5…0febbacked Yes77c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No12c105.95$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.176947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9de2…c042backed Yes47c105.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No28c104$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.644654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0267232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea68…ff92backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8005…abc0backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d29…414dbacked Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick69cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked No14c98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes67c86.58$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2514628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36ed…f21abacked Yes50c81.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes74c73.46$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd092…1015backed No17c71.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc85b…fb0cbacked Yes77c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc203…d681backed No19c68.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.751020%2 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe350…0274backed Yes75c57.2$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce8…3352backed No20c53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7750%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb985…cf92backed Yes68c51.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-51.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid+10.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48dd…1d79backed Yes43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes65c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0519240.6%78 W · 114 L-20.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-36.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb58d…9bf9backed Yes76c39.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-46.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x868d…b709backed Yes78c37.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes57c32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.661250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f7…453dbacked Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa438…9b9fbacked Yes75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc994…833dbacked Yes78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0073…822ebacked Yes79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes70c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1dd…376abacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d22…b357backed No51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9772…a7e0backed No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe106…92c6backed Yes80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc8…0f93backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x608c…be6cbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee8…63fdbacked Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f75…dc70backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eaf…e6d5backed Yes62c17.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.71216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-54.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2c4…aae5backed Yes75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.