Movies · resolved market
Will “Death by Lightning” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1ebbcbf63791da4910e1c9ecb55eaaac4d82861258f5a30f8f99bf06d83838e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 6c | 28,723$1,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,604.28 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1f…ec98backed Yes | 46c | 2,088$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,981$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 3c | 1,184$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,157$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2738…6412backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e8…5c8cbacked Yes | 4c | 986.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…ac11backed Yes | 10c | 809.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…b7bdbacked Yes | 17c | 637.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 38c | 632$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…e878backed Yes | 6c | 457.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…b2c6backed Yes | 4c | 440$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 63c | 353.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.75 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 312.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.65 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe12…07cfbacked Yes | 34c | 279.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.51 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.32per pick | 30cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Yes | 51c | 234$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 8c | 227.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…d549backed Yes | 49c | 203.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 144.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3875…1fd2backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…b357backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…d898backed No | 52c | 40.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf080…7e38backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…da0cbacked No | 51c | 39.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…4cccbacked No | 59c | 38.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6f…e4edbacked Yes | 52c | 38.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0163…eeafbacked Yes | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 30c | 37.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 62c | 34.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 77c | 26.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will “Death by Lightning” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)this page
- Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)No won
- Will “Squid Game: The Challenge: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)No won
- Will “The Bad Guys: Breaking In” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)No won
- Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.