Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eee375e2aac8f7c67bca7aabe4a74df50ff88cc5e28d35f84286247fa369382
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 63c | 14,030$8,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,174.19 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 1c | 9,390$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 75c | 4,889$3,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.2 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 50c | 4,786$2,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,396.11 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 33c | 4,537$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,059.95 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a476backed No | 17c | 4,298$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 64c | 3,000$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.86 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 28c | 2,893$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.25 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 46c | 2,692$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.3 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed No | 41c | 2,450$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.63 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,250$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.7 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 2,245$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.02 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 37c | 2,059$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.71 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 49c | 2,034$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.42 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 32c | 1,959$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 59c | 1,778$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.85 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 24c | 1,752$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.33 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 77c | 1,390$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.15 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 59c | 1,353$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.18 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 1,326$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.15 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 41c | 1,321$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.74 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 69c | 1,262$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.2 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,197$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.7 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 27c | 1,162$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.05 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 50c | 1,086$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.08 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 1,074$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.31 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 965.74$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.47 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed No | 40c | 916.67$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.74 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 65c | 811.66$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.11 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 34c | 809.29$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.64 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 65c | 771.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 64c | 760.96$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.96 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 65c | 749.96$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 43c | 678.75$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.13 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 41c | 661.09$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.09 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 59c | 647.96$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.87 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 54c | 629.18$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.23 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 615.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.18 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 607$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.89 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 33c | 599.93$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.95 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 32c | 550.83$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.88 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 57c | 528$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.19 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 64c | 520$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.2 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 57c | 515.54$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.18 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 26c | 506.59$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 31c | 484.83$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 42c | 473.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.18 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 54c | 468.29$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.29 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 53c | 459.71$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.92 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca2…20e6backed Yes | 66c | 452$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.58 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 65c | 451.57$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.85 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 53c | 438.33$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.14 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 37c | 420.89$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.19 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 50c | 401.03$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.08 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 61c | 344.66$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 55c | 340$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 74c | 323.31$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.55 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 24c | 320.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 301.44$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked No | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 53c | 285.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.69 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 64c | 283.83$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked No | 21c | 281$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +207.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 259.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.88 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 50c | 252.56$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e8…5e90backed Yes | 63c | 246.6$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.55 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 47c | 242.18$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 57c | 240$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed No | 44c | 226.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 204.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed No | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…59babacked No | 28c | 199.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…40edbacked No | 46c | 197.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 51c | 195.4$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.79 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 71c | 190$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 70c | 182.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 45c | 173.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 58c | 172.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 64c | 172.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 63c | 169.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 75c | 167.98$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.47 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 54c | 166.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 63c | 165.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 164.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 69c | 164.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked No | 62c | 161$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 160.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked No | 53c | 158.24$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 55c | 155.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes | 66c | 150.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes | 78c | 141.12$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 177 | 20.9%37 W · 140 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 22c | 134.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes | 73c | 133$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 132.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.51 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 42c | 130.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 59c | 129.44$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a6…cca7backed Yes | 50c | 127.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 13c | 126.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.