TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$131,930
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,930 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes63c14,030$8,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,174.1919215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No1c9,390$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4762539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes75c4,889$3,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.266222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes50c4,786$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,396.1153522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes33c4,537$1,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.9570616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8f9…a476backed No17c4,298$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.9350%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes64c3,000$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.8632613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No28c2,893$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.258324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No46c2,692$1,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.316222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No41c2,450$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.633745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes50c2,250$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,130.739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No11c2,245$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0227224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No37c2,059$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.719711.3%11 W · 86 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-63%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No49c2,034$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.4263821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No32c1,959$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6255944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes59c1,778$1,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.857337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No24c1,752$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.3314219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes77c1,390$1,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.1510043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes59c1,353$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.185715.8%9 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick16cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No40c1,326$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.1510556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes41c1,321$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.745119.6%10 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick20cpaid+69.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes69c1,262$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.222325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes57c1,197$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.76540%26 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No27c1,162$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.0510151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes50c1,086$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.0814427.1%39 W · 105 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No42c1,074$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.3138848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No72c965.74$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.4720857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No40c916.67$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7414751%75 W · 72 L+18.0wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes65c811.66$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.1115929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No34c809.29$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.6488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes65c771.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.151844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes64c760.96$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.9614037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes65c749.96$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.3856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No43c678.75$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.1340719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No41c661.09$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0910432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes59c647.96$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.8741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0acf…edf9backed Yes54c629.18$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.233759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No23c615.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1818949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c607$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8919053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes33c599.93$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.955437%20 W · 34 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No32c550.83$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8811558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No57c528$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1922160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes64c520$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.26350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes57c515.54$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.1818511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No26c506.59$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6610143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No31c484.83$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.853557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes42c473.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.183234.4%11 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+137.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes54c468.29$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.2923222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5381…1ec5backed No53c459.71$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.925545.5%25 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes66c452$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.587251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes65c451.57$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8511932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes53c438.33$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.1457621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No37c420.89$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.195942.4%25 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes50c401.03$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.0815817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes61c344.66$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.7615136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes55c340$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.817335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes74c323.31$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5510146.5%47 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes24c320.21$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.366940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c301.44$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.724524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes53c285.69$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.693225%8 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-37.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes64c283.83$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.145511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked No21c281$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.016920.3%14 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+207.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No70c259.49$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.882,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes50c252.56$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.17417.6%13 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007825.6%20 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+39.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e8…5e90backed Yes63c246.6$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.551855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+20.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No47c242.18$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7942424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes57c240$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.319930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed No44c226.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No42c204.29$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7916750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed No42c199.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847820.5%16 W · 62 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4645…59babacked No28c199.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No46c197.21$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.729733%32 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes51c195.4$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.792722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes71c190$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0550828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes70c182.54$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.210746.7%50 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes45c173.74$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.831,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed Yes58c172.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.662835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes64c172.52$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.451323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes63c169.32$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.2332529.2%95 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed No75c167.98$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.476939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes54c166.07$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes63c165.17$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No23c164.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4128723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5ac6…0465backed Yes69c164.38$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.635156.9%29 W · 22 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd850…e26cbacked No62c161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.821346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c160.9$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6224155.6%134 W · 107 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked No53c158.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3532917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes55c155.95$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3733527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ce…1f2abacked Yes66c150.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.31825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba8…f50bbacked Yes78c141.12$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.122458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes29c137.93$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9317720.9%37 W · 140 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x823b…2274backed Yes22c134.82$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.821127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c6f…c9a0backed Yes73c133$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.284544.4%20 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No66c132.78$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.5114864.9%96 W · 52 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No42c130.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.62962.1%18 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes59c129.44$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6612642.9%54 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a6…cca7backed Yes50c127.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.815738.6%22 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No13c126.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3112542.4%53 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.