Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76175191f89ddb956baaf82c62f835ba23d297d7a6df83bca7a868b0845df646
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $165,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 22c | 23,450$5,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,181.61 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 15c | 15,903$2,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.33 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 6,809$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 19c | 4,968$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.75 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 8c | 4,655$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.87 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 20c | 3,369$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.43 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 21c | 3,162$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.33 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed Yes | 24c | 3,000$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.71 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 17c | 2,928$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.26 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 10c | 2,876$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.27 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 16c | 2,848$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.67 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 25c | 2,619$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.78 | 144 | 27.1%39 W · 105 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 47c | 2,473$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.19 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,350$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.47 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 30c | 2,080$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 1,845$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.71 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 1,546$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.14 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,534$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.45 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 29c | 1,238$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.27 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 1,224$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 18c | 1,144$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.04 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 10c | 1,116$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,013$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,009$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.15 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 15c | 1,006$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 19c | 911.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.04 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes | 35c | 849.27$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.79 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +18.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…a476backed Yes | 14c | 830.65$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 6c | 800$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed Yes | 19c | 799.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 31c | 750.26$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.09 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 735.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.97 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 19c | 726.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 15c | 707.79$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 689.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 2c | 683.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No | 74c | 629.44$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.83 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 615.88$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 10c | 612.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 20c | 602.43$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 600$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x823b…2274backed Yes | 23c | 556.4$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb816…9e90backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 30c | 484.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.01 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 13c | 440.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 21c | 434.8$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.55 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 12c | 433.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 69c | 428.39$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 41c | 415$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.15 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 9c | 414.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 28c | 392.15$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.89 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 30c | 391.43$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 15c | 389.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.65 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 7c | 370.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 7c | 357.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…6906backed Yes | 15c | 354.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 28c | 341.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 18c | 330$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 18c | 324.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 8c | 320$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 316.78$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.69 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked No | 76c | 302.09$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 17c | 299.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 19c | 294.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 69c | 289$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd76d…9457backed Yes | 35c | 288.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 283.18$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.53 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 271.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 250.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 21c | 248.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 10c | 243.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed Yes | 8c | 242.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 13%12 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 11c | 236.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 16c | 235$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…66c7backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 12c | 230$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ad…d6e1backed Yes | 20c | 227.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 225.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 10c | 210$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 12c | 199.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 14c | 193.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 22c | 190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.24 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…c181backed No | 59c | 186.3$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 17c | 180.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes | 39c | 175.7$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 19c | 171.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 8c | 167$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 160.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 155.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 287 | 23.7%68 W · 219 L | -46.5wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 19c | 155.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 14c | 150$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefe…895dbacked No | 68c | 137.47$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.