Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x001a0218bfff0320fd0e620e8078778f50396af3dbb72f524ab59170edb7157e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 48c | 5,396$2,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.84 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 26c | 4,909$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,262.82 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 47c | 3,798$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.25 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 11c | 2,342$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.44 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,305$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.11 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,048$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,804$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.26 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,741$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.19 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 38c | 1,713$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.93 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,606$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 29c | 1,562$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.18 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 66c | 1,514$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.29 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,404$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 25c | 1,300$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 60c | 1,168$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.71 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 52c | 1,011$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.58 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 951.74$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.84 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 10c | 904.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 68c | 883.64$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.21 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed No | 75c | 836.47$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.36 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 28c | 781.51$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.54 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 728.4$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.59 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0acf…edf9backed Yes | 50c | 699.12$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 4c | 673$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 628.95$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.02 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b6adbacked Yes | 16c | 613.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 30c | 603.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.1 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 43c | 599.7$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.85 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 23c | 556.13$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.31 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 24c | 546.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 543.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 30c | 530.65$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 57c | 483.39$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.37 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 66c | 435.89$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.76 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…0ef2backed Yes | 24c | 432.71$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 22c | 388.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 61c | 365.15$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 33c | 339.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 330.75$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.09 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7557…7579backed No | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 51c | 295.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.97 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 70c | 294.38$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.87 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 30c | 287.7$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 39c | 278.98$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 34c | 249.96$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 233$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 222.38$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 63c | 218.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.19 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 214.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.82 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 14c | 202.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…fdd1backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544a…dbe1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 52c | 199.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…450abacked No | 67c | 174.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 312 | 17.3%54 W · 258 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 52c | 167.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed No | 67c | 160$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 61c | 159$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.12 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb641…34ffbacked Yes | 45c | 155.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…cb8abacked Yes | 46c | 153.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 135$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 29c | 131.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 125$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 56c | 124.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 10c | 112.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…09c7backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 46c | 99.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad06…b912backed Yes | 36c | 96.89$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 82.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…1e60backed No | 53c | 75.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 103 | 63.1%65 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 77c | 71.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 54c | 71.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 71.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…0d4ebacked No | 67c | 70.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…0465backed Yes | 35c | 69.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 62c | 63.56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked No | 61c | 62.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 53c | 61.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 51c | 59.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…0b39backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 21c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…0432backed Yes | 32c | 50.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 51c | 49.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 57c | 47.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 79c | 46.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.