Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f8134ddfc20930b6982caa2ee78e714bbad234caf4b11bc9c48a8fce4f60bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 4c | 6,250$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.58 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 3,266$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 2,885$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.13 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7569backed Yes | 19c | 1,572$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.04 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,185$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.34 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 18c | 1,024$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.64 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…5762backed Yes | 14c | 1,014$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.73 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee95…87fbbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 687.86$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fb…e7f3backed Yes | 17c | 651.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…9e6dbacked Yes | 14c | 600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 14c | 599.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 15c | 522.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…d61ebacked Yes | 2c | 520.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 435$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.65 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd527…cb8abacked Yes | 19c | 391.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 13c | 286.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 16c | 269.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 12c | 244.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 240$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 20c | 220$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…2698backed Yes | 19c | 211.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27bf…319bbacked Yes | 19c | 203.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 175$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Yes | 19c | 167$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 12c | 145.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 14c | 141.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 18c | 120.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc959…c37fbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce0…82d6backed Yes | 17c | 100.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…0217backed Yes | 20c | 95.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…0190backed Yes | 16c | 82.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…a070backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…bc67backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58cb…3cd6backed Yes | 20c | 60.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…1aefbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 48.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 80c | 32.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed0…2bc4backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.