TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$126,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c10,567$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1324816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda6…2095backed Yes58c5,120$2,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,957.932425%6 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-34.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes54c4,407$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.263636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No37c3,768$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,381.6316122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes48c3,684$1,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,750.958324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes40c3,473$1,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,402.48321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes57c3,363$1,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,908.4366222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed No71c3,344$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.210043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes43c3,249$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.1421429.9%64 W · 150 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes52c2,981$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,540.917337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes47c2,958$1,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,381.374017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes61c2,374$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.8424524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes44c2,277$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.8368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes35c2,156$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.0553222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No46c1,964$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.8122325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes19c1,800$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33823222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes58c1,546$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.256817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes4c1,526$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5862713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d22ebacked No67c1,499$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes62c1,407$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.5676821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes2c1,400$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309330.1%28 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes61c1,387$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.667132.4%23 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes52c1,357$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7956329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No50c1,351$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.563021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes28c1,228$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.271,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes40c1,151$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.7927820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes50c1,147$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.1843719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes64c1,015$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.4716741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16053817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed No68c999.99$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.1122610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes48c941.66$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.7914219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c906.97$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.888532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes43c900$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.839723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes42c896.21$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.3815929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes44c885.76$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.7122023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No55c855$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.0830854.9%169 W · 139 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes49c835.33$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.7710143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No49c830.04$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.6616750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No50c807.78$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.2121959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes27c793.64$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5213235.6%47 W · 85 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No39c761.19$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.6787618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7c…4c7cbacked Yes46c758.47$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.013063.3%19 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c737$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.2119756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No38c706.37$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.9387917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes52c700$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36410536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…5762backed Yes33c692.96$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.896350.8%32 W · 31 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4595…6dddbacked Yes6c659.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.990%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c594.34$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.1518949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No44c589.47$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.952240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No48c566.01$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.1829225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes41c551.66$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.1540519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes37c545.21$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes52c521.96$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.364226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5046521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc1…0a06backed Yes12c475.51$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572846.4%13 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3949…4c45backed Yes51c471$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.947140.8%29 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No39c466.77$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.359057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes65c452.85$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.9738648.2%186 W · 200 L+15.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14db…7cafbacked No24c417.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes63c411.09$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.9211723.1%27 W · 90 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x528a…c358backed Yes38c408.59$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.04560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca2…20e6backed Yes75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.067251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes68c399.99$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.9920723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd26a…732cbacked Yes41c399.12$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16212435.5%44 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes36c380$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.66529.2%19 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes17c379.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.445511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No76c353.64$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5413161.8%81 W · 50 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+24.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No48c337.83$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.012268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes53c336.7$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.419819.7%39 W · 159 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes38c324.7$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3931217.3%54 W · 258 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No36c323.08$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1311558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No30c315.99$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1914451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes13c315.47$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6779711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No41c312.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.7557420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11716110.6%17 W · 144 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c300$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.419053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes57c300$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.139233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No45c290$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.7123955.2%132 W · 107 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes55c286.66$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8528723.7%68 W · 219 L-46.5wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-63%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes37c277.67$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.5449919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No29c270.46$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.611145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes23c270$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6142719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes5c268.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.664314%6 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…5aebbacked Yes77c266.45$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.383333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes58c243.89$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.717335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x254a…bc44backed Yes77c227.26$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.993737.8%14 W · 23 L-5.6wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes34c220$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.45630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes67c215.84$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.612259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No56c211.04$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.476636.4%24 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…ccdbbacked Yes31c209.99$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes50c207$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4321034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac4…1819backed Yes58c205.71$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.199427.7%26 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes53c201.31$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1250828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1287…85adbacked Yes47c200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937448.6%36 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067328.8%21 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+119.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes25c200$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed No23c199.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9911831.4%37 W · 81 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+33.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No43c199.37$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0351018.2%93 W · 417 L-89.7wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes39c198.98$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.777458.1%43 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.