Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bfac310199f64e96df92531bd7285ffef1dfcf0017ec67941447c8d9e0f843e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $223,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $227,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d0b…fd29backed No | 0c | 19,377$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 71c | 8,165$5,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,767.94 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 33c | 7,536$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,027.67 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30cf…704abacked No | 56c | 6,554$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.75 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 39c | 6,024$2,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,653.71 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed No | 73c | 4,253$3,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,092.81 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 63c | 4,048$2,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.1 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 67c | 3,969$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,653.44 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 33c | 3,796$1,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.94 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 33c | 3,400$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.19 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b8…1305backed No | 53c | 2,856$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,507.1 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 26c | 2,730$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,010.33 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 62c | 2,673$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.58 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes | 63c | 2,603$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.73 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 30c | 2,369$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.53 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No | 73c | 2,317$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,697.69 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 28c | 2,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,439.99 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 16c | 1,721$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.57 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 74c | 1,714$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.18 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked No | 65c | 1,633$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.48 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 73c | 1,524$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.54 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 10c | 1,465$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,383$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.81 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 36c | 1,355$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 1,350$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.12 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 39c | 1,304$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.08 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 27c | 1,147$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.44 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,141$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.87 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 64c | 1,109$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 26c | 1,109$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.83 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 48c | 1,100$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.7 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 29c | 1,061$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.57 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 24c | 1,031$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.59 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…2f8abacked No | 69c | 1,016$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.86 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 61c | 992.05$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.62 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 31c | 990.82$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.9 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 945.47$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.9 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 31c | 945.08$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.82 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…fbd6backed No | 30c | 906.99$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…3d67backed Yes | 28c | 905.84$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +283.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 49c | 897.33$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.77 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 20c | 895.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d22ebacked Yes | 42c | 853.64$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed Yes | 28c | 799.99$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 779.02$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.73 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 59c | 750.2$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.8 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 737$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.89 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 39c | 713.58$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.94 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 22c | 712.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.17 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 700$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.69 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 700$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 699.63$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.68 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 71c | 679.86$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.72 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 33c | 657.72$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.27 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2e80backed No | 63c | 647.2$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 29c | 629.14$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.23 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 55c | 589.47$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.23 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 24c | 556.54$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.72 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 41c | 534.38$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.12 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 514.34$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…2041backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc248…d31abacked No | 8c | 493.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 35c | 489.02$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.81 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 58c | 484.36$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.4 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 26c | 473.21$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.41 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…e42bbacked Yes | 60c | 466.54$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 62c | 460.14$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.32 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 33c | 457.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.65 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…1965backed No | 76c | 457.33$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…c358backed Yes | 54c | 452.06$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 49c | 440.07$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.72 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed No | 7c | 421.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked No | 75c | 416.34$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.89 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked No | 56c | 415.5$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.22 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 29c | 411.09$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.5 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17da…7e6cbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…c4fdbacked No | 76c | 394.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 35c | 390$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.1 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…75a0backed Yes | 37c | 390$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 72c | 388.89$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 50c | 369$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.15 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 36c | 365.06$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 51c | 364.48$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 361.85$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.65 | 90 | 57.8%52 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…d422backed Yes | 32c | 349.64$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 335.31$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.38 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 69c | 323.1$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.02 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 316$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.52 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ab…273dbacked Yes | 39c | 299.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 204 | 32.4%66 W · 138 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 297.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.45 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d8…415cbacked No | 76c | 293.86$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.09 | 85 | 65.9%56 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 278.13$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 275$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.15 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 73c | 270.47$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 64c | 264.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 39c | 262.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.