TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$223,533
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$227,923

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $223,533 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d0b…fd29backed No0c19,377$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No71c8,165$5,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,767.9456429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes33c7,536$2,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,027.6763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked No56c6,554$3,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,694.759348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes39c6,024$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,653.718321.7%18 W · 65 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-47.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed No73c4,253$3,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,092.8110629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes63c4,048$2,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.110043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No67c3,969$2,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,653.444017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes33c3,796$1,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.9416222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No33c3,400$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.1912429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No53c2,856$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.15944.1%26 W · 33 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes26c2,730$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,010.3353522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No62c2,673$1,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,657.5815844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe13…8b9cbacked Yes63c2,603$1,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.733636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes30c2,369$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.5354122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No73c2,317$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.695843.1%25 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes28c2,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,439.9963414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes16c1,721$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.5775122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No74c1,714$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.1868615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked No65c1,633$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.482259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes73c1,524$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.5416741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No10c1,465$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.926254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c1,383$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.8176821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No36c1,355$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48362539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No51c1,350$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.1238848.5%188 W · 200 L+16.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes39c1,304$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.0823222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes27c1,147$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.4488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes32c1,141$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.8739723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No64c1,109$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71034833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes26c1,109$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.8315136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes48c1,100$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.75024%12 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes29c1,061$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.5788018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes24c1,031$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.597337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No69c1,016$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.867042.9%30 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+5.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No35c1,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c4…8129backed No61c992.05$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.629423.4%22 W · 72 L-16.1wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-55.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes31c990.82$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.946137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes29c945.47$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.957621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes31c945.08$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656.8229227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No30c906.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.18532.9%28 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5dd…3d67backed Yes28c905.84$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+283.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes49c897.33$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.7715929.6%47 W · 112 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes20c895.38$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71918511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbb3…d22ebacked Yes42c853.64$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.48944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb5…3238backed Yes28c799.99$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5761163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+100.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No61c779.02$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.7316750.3%84 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No59c750.2$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.816941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No54c737$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.8919756.9%112 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes39c713.58$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.9449919%95 W · 404 L-1.7wins0.00per pick19cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes22c712.92$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.1718726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No64c700$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.6930955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes32c700$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47610536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes35c699.63$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.682,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No71c679.86$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.7222160.2%133 W · 88 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes33c657.72$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.271,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c34…2e80backed No63c647.2$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+92.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes29c629.14$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.239226.1%24 W · 68 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36043719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No55c589.47$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.232240.9%9 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes24c556.54$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.7228016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes41c534.38$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.1220723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No54c514.34$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.2518949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…2041backed Yes31c500$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3454226.2%11 W · 31 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+91.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18022023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc248…d31abacked No8c493.76$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes35c489.02$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.8121034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No58c484.36$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.440719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes26c473.21$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.4116023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x48d1…e42bbacked Yes60c466.54$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.54333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No62c460.14$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.322268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes33c457.65$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.6533527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…1965backed No76c457.33$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick57cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x528a…c358backed Yes54c452.06$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.72560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No49c440.07$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.7237830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6136…64f8backed No7c421.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9532…f57ebacked No75c416.34$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.894641.3%19 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked No56c415.5$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.224146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes29c411.09$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.511723.1%27 W · 90 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17da…7e6cbacked No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19cc…c4fdbacked No76c394.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-49.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes35c390$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.110432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes37c390$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.76529.2%19 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked No72c388.89$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010730.8%33 W · 74 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes50c369$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.1521222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes36c365.06$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9631624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes51c364.48$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.7122325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c361.85$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.659057.8%52 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7c…d422backed Yes32c349.64$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.56547.7%31 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes27c335.31$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.3824524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No69c323.1$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.0211558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No72c316$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.5214451.4%74 W · 70 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes39c299.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.9920432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No46c297.27$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4510143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5d8…415cbacked No76c293.86$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.098565.9%56 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No50c278.13$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.829750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c275$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1519053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No73c270.47$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.211145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed No64c264.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8419124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No39c262.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4335024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.