Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f891ddc89dd800cec38879303cdbbdd5aaf1e0166358bee990345997c3589f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcadc…4285backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 7c | 17,792$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.93 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 10,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 4c | 7,962$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.2 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,710$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 4,809$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.73 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 15c | 4,587$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$691.38 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,261$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 13c | 4,073$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.23 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,064$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 19.7%39 W · 159 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 6c | 3,812$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.23 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,608$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 2c | 3,580$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.66 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eef…eacabacked Yes | 9c | 2,497$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.21 | 214 | 29.9%64 W · 150 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 2,395$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 4c | 2,361$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 1c | 2,041$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…567fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,947$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 361 | 13.3%48 W · 313 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed Yes | 7c | 1,520$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,503$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.65 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4595…6dddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,426$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 6c | 1,386$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.52 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,340$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,273$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 7c | 1,264$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 5c | 1,230$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.82 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 4c | 1,168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 1,163$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 1,139$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 1,125$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 6c | 986.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 16c | 967.81$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.56 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 15c | 899.7$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.42 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 1c | 840.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 788.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…a865backed Yes | 8c | 771.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe178…0c26backed Yes | 4c | 730$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 7c | 704.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 699.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 8c | 652.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 8c | 629.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 6c | 628.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes | 4c | 622.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…26e8backed Yes | 9c | 579.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 535.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc0…2041backed Yes | 9c | 499.68$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 432.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…146cbacked Yes | 8c | 411.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes | 9c | 328.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…75f3backed Yes | 21c | 315.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 17c | 261$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 10c | 247.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 6c | 241.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffae…5c98backed Yes | 8c | 199.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 173.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…0c0dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ff…ec42backed Yes | 16c | 71.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 16c | 70.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…78abbacked Yes | 19c | 68.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 18c | 61.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.