Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9dbceb621eb308f35617ac041d85035ecb1e6eca9b609efe47fbe2c5f2034ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,893$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…3238backed Yes | 7c | 4,812$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…04a0backed Yes | 12c | 4,329$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,535$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98d…5a68backed Yes | 10c | 3,399$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 6c | 3,116$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.9 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,814$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…c441backed No | 13c | 2,251$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.08 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,106$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 1,834$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.92 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 3c | 1,789$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 1,570$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 1,360$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 1,222$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 1,052$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb3…d22ebacked Yes | 17c | 966.38$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 963.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 3c | 960.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 4c | 911.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…a962backed Yes | 7c | 880.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 756.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b27…7908backed Yes | 2c | 699.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 608.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…989bbacked Yes | 8c | 600.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…a6bebacked Yes | 9c | 600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 560$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 11c | 549.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 6c | 528$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 505.66$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 107 | 38.3%41 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 486.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 6c | 457.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.19 | 131 | 61.8%81 W · 50 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…4c88backed Yes | 12c | 411.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 7c | 406.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 4c | 340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 308.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 4c | 290$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 12c | 249.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc7…b583backed Yes | 7c | 243.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 12c | 201.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc4…1403backed Yes | 7c | 194.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b01…0c76backed Yes | 14c | 148.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…9fc1backed Yes | 12c | 117.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 47c | 100.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.58 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 16c | 81.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 52.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 32c | 41.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.