AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdac258b66b3fcae373fc66d00681412d6a9446f87d9608cbff1ea31daca54236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aba…eea1backed Yes | 40c | 10,177$4,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,030.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 5,480$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.38 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 1,015$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.87 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 25c | 995$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.8 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 43c | 935$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.86 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked Yes | 38c | 830.96$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 62c | 802.68$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.4 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed No | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 66c | 765.16$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.92 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 59c | 629$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.07 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 64c | 600$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 104 | 26.9%28 W · 76 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 64c | 536.21$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.87 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 26c | 510.72$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 61c | 440$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 54c | 410$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 70c | 400.13$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 398.87$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes | 27c | 352.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7128…fa7ebacked Yes | 36c | 342.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 40c | 335$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 10c | 289.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 60c | 288.14$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…b960backed Yes | 7c | 270$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked No | 63c | 234.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee8…1805backed Yes | 35c | 225.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…9ea9backed Yes | 28c | 224.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed No | 63c | 221.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 34c | 219.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee6…8af6backed No | 73c | 206.17$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…1283backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8862backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 64c | 142.78$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.02 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 141$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 73c | 136.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 61c | 132$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 26c | 130.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 29c | 120$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 68c | 115$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 64c | 106.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 72c | 105.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…c49fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7ebcbacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 93.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 55c | 91.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 84.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed Yes | 37c | 78.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…ac11backed Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…f4aebacked No | 60c | 72.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 14c | 72.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…a6b7backed Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 70c | 63.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56da…fca2backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 61c | 52.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016a…d347backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 31c | 42.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb2dc…e9ebbacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed Yes | 32c | 33.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf968…3f90backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…9f96backed No | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 46c | 29.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473a…c40ebacked No | 80c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?Yes won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.