AI · resolved market
Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb23782f3b41576fd7d144a1d98409b5cc60df25cc29e172d1924466120f67d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 77c | 2,655$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.11 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 17c | 2,130$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.97 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 1,661$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 5c | 1,621$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.93 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 28c | 1,061$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 41c | 979.47$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.19 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked Yes | 54c | 804.29$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 42c | 786.11$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.17 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 13c | 683.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.63 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 671.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.56 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 599.98$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.99 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…506cbacked No | 17c | 574.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 41c | 545.09$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.54 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 25c | 513.29$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…4ce9backed Yes | 17c | 500.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +189.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.39 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06d…4d87backed No | 3c | 323.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 26c | 296.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 23c | 292.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…4c70backed No | 5c | 285.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 28c | 284.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 60c | 258.48$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 16c | 232$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.32 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6358…cc23backed Yes | 18c | 197.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…73adbacked No | 21c | 180$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1297…30fcbacked Yes | 9c | 159.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +573.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…a3c3backed Yes | 79c | 155.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Yes | 61c | 132.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked No | 10c | 117.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 75c | 110.86$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 110.45$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…3581backed No | 14c | 104.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…8e5ebacked Yes | 58c | 103.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…d589backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed No | 42c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 47c | 78.96$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…a6b7backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +210.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 70c | 57.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 79c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 80c | 49.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 32c | 46.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 40.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaad…6499backed Yes | 70c | 22.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed Yes | 62c | 16.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.