AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf01a6e5bf4dee21d35b7cf23e47e025710fad883fe0b96c362dcbfdd8bed229b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 7,459$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.7 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aba…eea1backed Yes | 47c | 3,903$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 12c | 1,803$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 22c | 1,418$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.53 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 17c | 905.24$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.98 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 13c | 877.68$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.62 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 24c | 875.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.73 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…057cbacked Yes | 45c | 836.28$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 20c | 699.5$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.5 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 61c | 644.63$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.12 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 17c | 420.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.33 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 12c | 404.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 75c | 393.62$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.44 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 20c | 387.34$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…31aebacked Yes | 12c | 361.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1ea2backed Yes | 10c | 357.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 334.21$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.09 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0e…4838backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 266.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 13c | 190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…b960backed Yes | 11c | 183.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 13c | 164.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99e…62b1backed Yes | 12c | 163.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…4987backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…2f10backed Yes | 10c | 145.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +142.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Yes | 8c | 140$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba74…3e0fbacked Yes | 9c | 139$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 37c | 136.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 22c | 135.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 128$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 27c | 121.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 22c | 115.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 109.15$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8862backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 100.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 69c | 77.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 25c | 73.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -83%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…5092backed Yes | 38c | 73.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 49c | 61.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c86…e223backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe26b…a9ecbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…d65fbacked Yes | 48c | 31.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?this page
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?Yes won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.