AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56ba72bcd1c19ced0f7a2c752c744d448df9f9366eb8c874f003f378d466f58c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 9,060$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…9262backed Yes | 7c | 2,029$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.61 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dff…1f35backed Yes | 1c | 1,026$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 7c | 1,005$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 9c | 606.05$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 6c | 537.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 488.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 8c | 325.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…8862backed Yes | 8c | 306.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed Yes | 5c | 214.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2e…d589backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 166.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Yes | 12c | 163.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 9c | 122$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 13c | 105.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 13c | 103.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?this page
- Will Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Google’s Gemini 3 Pro win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Kimi’s Kimi K2 Thinking win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will OpenAI’s GPT 5.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
- Will Unknown’s Mystery Model win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?Yes won
- Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.