TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will xAI’s Grok 4 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,286
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,706

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,286 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c8,515$43 inLost-$43.436291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes0c7,488$14 inLost-$13.85345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Yes2c3,432$71 inLost-$70.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes1c1,168$17 inLost-$16.875324.5%13 W · 40 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a15…32f3backed Yes4c1,039$42 inLost-$41.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2e…d589backed Yes3c499.98$15 inLost-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba74…3e0fbacked Yes6c333$20 inLost-$19.9860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked Yes5c277.97$14 inLost-$13.94628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.