Commodities · resolved market
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb21d76fb97b8ba258495646033cac00822c70dc0a09e0050b816b5225fb9ebd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,126 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1395…b329backed Down | 44c | 175$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa651…1fd0backed Down | 20c | 154.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…6b71backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…044cbacked Up | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…c9d9backed Up | 80c | 91.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…2a5ebacked Up | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…14d4backed Down | 57c | 52.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7097…41a5backed Up | 80c | 30.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0799…7ad8backed Up | 62c | 22.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…c8debacked Down | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…80a8backed Up | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…839dbacked Down | 62c | 17.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.