TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$342,308
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$319,129

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $342,308 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes5c12,491$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575.8712910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes6c11,176$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes8c9,784$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…fa1dbacked Yes24c7,561$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.39742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes9c7,123$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.95650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x873b…dd51backed Yes25c5,934$1,469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,469.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa4…5bc6backed Yes6c5,542$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.5450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+194.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes7c5,175$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.992412.5%3 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes10c5,112$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.197244.4%32 W · 40 L+8.7wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+15.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes16c4,439$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.8617850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b7…30c2backed Yes10c4,381$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb64e…9379backed Yes16c3,668$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.38728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x419d…7817backed Yes6c3,651$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes11c3,594$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.045250%26 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes6c3,432$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.3716544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6998…9ff2backed Yes14c3,052$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.951020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02e…25e5backed Yes5c2,915$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.544810.4%5 W · 43 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1f…34cbbacked Yes14c2,796$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes17c2,479$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4252245.5%10 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xedc0…99f3backed Yes15c2,436$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.652931%9 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c2,301$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.313989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes23c2,278$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.5710347.6%49 W · 54 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes11c2,271$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.028231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes3c2,178$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.068750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x92f4…0f69backed Yes5c2,153$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes15c2,040$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.211450%7 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes12c2,008$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.933727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes3c2,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610211.8%12 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc738…a9c8backed Yes5c1,834$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bbe…8fb9backed Yes5c1,821$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…884dbacked Yes6c1,808$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.251010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb186…f965backed Yes4c1,787$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x943f…43a7backed Yes6c1,708$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a50…0f91backed Yes5c1,673$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes10c1,566$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.637751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc018…018abacked Yes14c1,530$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.091315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-35.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c1,507$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4418516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Yes7c1,411$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+209.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes7c1,393$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6335519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes13c1,320$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.926459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes6c1,251$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.882330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No76c1,136$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.0213714.6%20 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No70c1,111$779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.1910950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a79…304fbacked Yes4c1,100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes5c1,050$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.794323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9d…f9febacked Yes2c1,005$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes4c1,005$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.768015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed Yes12c1,000$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1244751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3d…79c4backed Yes6c937.53$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd811…8d43backed Yes6c922.46$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.41560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+26%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3d2…0bf8backed Yes6c864.73$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b41…5dedbacked Yes14c853.04$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-58.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes10c818.5$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0137740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d9…fc76backed Yes4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c781.73$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.481,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes4c750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde23…67f0backed Yes12c726.15$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes5c710$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.310834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes12c673.55$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.457119.7%14 W · 57 L-8.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-60.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf541…5505backed Yes8c655.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick6cpaid+143.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa532…a660backed Yes16c618.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a64…9f01backed Yes8c615.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501650%8 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+83.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes12c601.13$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.942147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c8…8fa9backed Yes8c600$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddd…722dbacked No80c560.18$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.678100%8 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+40.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0f5…a0b1backed Yes4c548.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa15c…10d3backed Yes12c526.31$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid+30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes5c525.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick17cpaid+3.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f93…e7a5backed Yes19c520.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dd…7564backed Yes11c515$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.111457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4b8…03a0backed Yes20c510.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c2…24a6backed Yes10c509.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+162.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1707…081ebacked Yes5c503.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4956…e2c7backed No73c500$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.25666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.972015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-66.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9882…c4ccbacked Yes34c497.06$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd511…241cbacked Yes7c483.82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.721315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd460…c6efbacked Yes4c474.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc057…ce21backed Yes7c447.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c430$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1255618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No76c425$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.562157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b83…905ebacked Yes13c399.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes9c399.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.613341.4%55 W · 78 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c392.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.822154.2%9 W · 206 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f67…f49abacked Yes10c389.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c39…505ebacked Yes13c371.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.14520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-53.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…4f68backed Yes4c367.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaba5…a69ebacked Yes15c357$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.431816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick9cpaid+72.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes13c353$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.512128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab8…93d1backed Yes6c346.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes4c333.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No74c333$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.2421634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes9c330.77$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.081747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab07…e6f1backed Yes3c320$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182045%9 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick38cpaid-15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3f8…3ef8backed Yes12c310.79$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb137…f949backed Yes10c310.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb01b…e951backed Yes15c299.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4880%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc434…f25ebacked Yes5c293.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.