TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,327

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes15c5,812$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes19c4,598$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.851735.3%6 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes18c3,542$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.8814661%89 W · 57 L+10.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed No78c3,318$2,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.014100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89e0…9412backed Yes17c3,018$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.945554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+33.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa584…cc36backed Yes5c2,943$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes15c2,233$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes5c1,680$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.391421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes26c1,456$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.7716250.6%82 W · 80 L+11.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24fd…1250backed Yes6c1,398$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90c1…df40backed No76c1,383$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.17520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-73.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9259…746ebacked Yes27c1,364$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c1,283$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.356710.4%7 W · 60 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…ff17backed Yes4c1,068$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x239f…ecc1backed Yes31c1,041$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb22a…a80dbacked Yes49c937.8$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes32c857.72$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes23c844.44$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.992524%6 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c838.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.31583.4%2 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+202.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe042…2498backed Yes12c836.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe812…cd3bbacked Yes27c826.61$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdab…137ebacked Yes29c801.22$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes14c568.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.362133.3%7 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick24cpaid+41.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4461…4280backed Yes10c552.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No79c550.15$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.681963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes2c534.19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.257121.1%15 W · 56 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-51.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f88…1c3fbacked Yes21c521.93$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40c9…664dbacked No55c499.96$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bb…4282backed No79c482$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.43944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No75c477.74$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.72763%17 W · 10 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+31%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33d7…0ffebacked No73c464.52$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.51650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65c9…cf56backed Yes11c432.19$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc59e…4357backed Yes23c430.44$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff2…9ba3backed Yes14c397.28$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked No73c379.08$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.971827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid+290.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5309…4c9cbacked Yes34c345.11$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.43650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes8c334.55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.521338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.21per pick17cpaid+81%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca12…ea03backed Yes7c299.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf6…8b41backed Yes16c226.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62c1…8aebbacked Yes22c223.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes20c204.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.588739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae0f…e94dbacked Yes17c203.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6b0…a92dbacked Yes40c202.41$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97bf…1791backed Yes10c201.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21fb…b776backed Yes29c201.64$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes13c193.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110529.5%31 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes23c190$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78a9…2080backed Yes23c175.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c66…a0c7backed No77c173.55$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed Yes8c166$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x123f…5143backed Yes65c153.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…2aa5backed Yes13c151.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes36c150.93$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes19c150$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc50f…70a4backed Yes21c144.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Yes12c139.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf8a…5d03backed No79c138.75$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed Yes15c133.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38c…1ee8backed Yes11c131.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b64…b53dbacked Yes24c126.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c121.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2810517.1%18 W · 87 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2616…dacbbacked Yes20c120.85$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e0…43b9backed Yes12c117.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeec3…6bd2backed Yes16c112.5$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00fc…d4a6backed Yes9c111.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+151.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x706e…98b9backed Yes23c106.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629e…6be4backed Yes34c106.25$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.571844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc53…78c3backed Yes38c104.76$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes11c103$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-73.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ca…960bbacked Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes26c99.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c92.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0139116.1%63 W · 328 L-44.4wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4d02…2ad3backed Yes31c91.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3287…7058backed Yes23c87.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes19c77.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No67c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No77c74.31$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.335572.7%40 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16fc…3443backed No79c70.85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f66…3a50backed Yes30c66.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c66.6$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No77c62$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+38%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x241b…9b9abacked Yes49c61.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f4…64b1backed Yes36c54.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes20c51.18$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.166339.7%25 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c8b…4167backed Yes29c51.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No65c51.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.753256.3%18 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No59c46.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.272161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd0b…97dabacked Yes26c46.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbdf…f7d1backed Yes29c41.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a7…6df0backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6240…57c2backed Yes31c35.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No62c35.02$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.311947.4%9 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes39c33.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c33$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.37366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe577…99bbbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9578…f066backed No64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.685759.6%34 W · 23 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No62c27.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.332673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No66c26.93$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.25650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+115.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fa1…deebbacked No68c24.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.