Token Launches · resolved market
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x943283872abab5fa855914aeb4bcac6cb06c0c5d003563789e74b045b31c0c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x500f…a4e3backed Yes | 36c | 8,532$3,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 48c | 5,803$2,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.6 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e15…cfdbbacked Yes | 25c | 4,511$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 22c | 4,492$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…694dbacked No | 66c | 4,185$2,742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6a…6d7bbacked Yes | 29c | 4,128$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 4,020$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.7 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8a…91f0backed No | 73c | 3,285$2,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.16 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…a58ebacked Yes | 51c | 3,046$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.66 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…4a26backed Yes | 34c | 3,039$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 32c | 2,886$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.96 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed No | 71c | 2,788$1,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.05 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 66c | 2,775$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.67 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…c498backed Yes | 38c | 2,756$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.97 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbebf…4e07backed No | 73c | 2,734$1,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.36 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…80eebacked Yes | 1c | 2,375$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 28c | 2,213$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.8 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb674…0184backed Yes | 23c | 2,109$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0822…84e5backed No | 62c | 2,097$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.7 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +206.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacf5…9385backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…dc7abacked No | 79c | 1,887$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e9…4136backed No | 43c | 1,650$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…523cbacked Yes | 31c | 1,632$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5304…13e8backed Yes | 25c | 1,621$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…bf25backed No | 65c | 1,535$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,505$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…9c2fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,457$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…562ebacked No | 77c | 1,389$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b6…6e2ebacked Yes | 37c | 1,367$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…185cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,299$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 73c | 1,266$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.81 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcae9…c13bbacked No | 69c | 1,249$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.81 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 35c | 1,249$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 23c | 1,248$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.67 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x987c…cd13backed No | 64c | 1,248$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 73c | 1,209$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.95 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,147$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90b0…7de0backed Yes | 35c | 1,123$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…8d52backed Yes | 26c | 1,097$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.85 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…64c3backed Yes | 24c | 1,096$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.22 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…840ebacked No | 20c | 1,082$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.02 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +7.3wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x894d…6916backed Yes | 30c | 1,075$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.16 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…3b03backed Yes | 22c | 1,049$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked No | 31c | 1,014$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.86 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…b1b4backed No | 79c | 1,010$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d68…4f6dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…6aacbacked No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf17…6cc6backed No | 64c | 999.98$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +8.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4cea…d1d2backed Yes | 31c | 979.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 24c | 963.5$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.59 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…15d3backed Yes | 23c | 956.61$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.01 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes | 14c | 930.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.71 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 61c | 927.5$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.73 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked Yes | 18c | 908.56$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.07 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 67c | 900$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.37 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…20a3backed Yes | 22c | 892.37$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.24 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 34c | 888.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 33c | 857.09$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.84 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…a222backed No | 74c | 849$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…01e0backed No | 73c | 848.65$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.76 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 29c | 826.12$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked No | 74c | 808.96$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes | 31c | 806.1$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 71c | 789.42$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.9 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 19c | 774.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.16 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes | 15c | 770.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed Yes | 31c | 706$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 24c | 640.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 69c | 628.89$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.5 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…aa0ebacked Yes | 34c | 610$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +97%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 8c | 600$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971f…160abacked No | 65c | 557.09$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2890…b5ecbacked Yes | 16c | 531.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.51 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 514.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…256abacked Yes | 35c | 514.29$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc05f…9b56backed No | 78c | 510.76$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Yes | 22c | 499.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes | 26c | 494.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 79c | 486.82$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35cb…bd5fbacked No | 21c | 484.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.55 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…47c8backed Yes | 30c | 480.57$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…124abacked No | 33c | 476.54$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.26 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbf…4ec0backed Yes | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 28c | 446$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec3…f32bbacked Yes | 19c | 445$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 23c | 431.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…e03abacked Yes | 20c | 419$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…727dbacked Yes | 23c | 416.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…cc15backed Yes | 27c | 414.58$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 12c | 411.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.41 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 73c | 409.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6f…b080backed No | 77c | 408.03$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ed…7d22backed No | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…17adbacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1e…07d1backed No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 30c | 390.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d41…df69backed Yes | 10c | 380$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?this page
- Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $120M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $140M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $160M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.