TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$192,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$188,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x500f…a4e3backed Yes36c8,532$3,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,08730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No48c5,803$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,017.615941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked Yes25c4,511$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,110.17742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes22c4,492$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.663256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e5…694dbacked No66c4,185$2,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.74100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+175.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9b6a…6d7bbacked Yes29c4,128$1,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,178.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c4,020$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.716740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e8a…91f0backed No73c3,285$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.161450%7 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x604a…a58ebacked Yes51c3,046$1,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.663256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33d2…4a26backed Yes34c3,039$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd588…cec0backed Yes32c2,886$922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.968521.2%18 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed No71c2,788$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.058854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd569…48c1backed No66c2,775$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.674334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x33ef…c498backed Yes38c2,756$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.973531.4%11 W · 24 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-50.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed No73c2,734$1,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.367061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x240e…80eebacked Yes1c2,375$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-76.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes28c2,213$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.82810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb674…0184backed Yes23c2,109$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.81729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0822…84e5backed No62c2,097$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.73063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xacf5…9385backed Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x701e…dc7abacked No79c1,887$1,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No43c1,650$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9468630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa37f…523cbacked Yes31c1,632$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5304…13e8backed Yes25c1,621$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1096…bf25backed No65c1,535$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.69944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,505$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.132061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aee…9c2fbacked Yes16c1,457$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a32…562ebacked No77c1,389$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b6…6e2ebacked Yes37c1,367$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x160c…185cbacked Yes54c1,299$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa173…3315backed No73c1,266$923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.815541.8%23 W · 32 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcae9…c13bbacked No69c1,249$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.811662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick46cpaid+89.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes35c1,249$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4374531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12d9…f992backed Yes23c1,248$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.675846.6%27 W · 31 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+14.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x987c…cd13backed No64c1,248$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No73c1,209$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.955058%29 W · 21 L+7.9wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1edd…be0fbacked Yes14c1,147$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1622218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90b0…7de0backed Yes35c1,123$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c1,100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331424.2%6 W · 136 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+27.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes26c1,097$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.854528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes24c1,096$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.223318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…840ebacked No20c1,082$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.022475%18 W · 6 L+7.3wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+82.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x894d…6916backed Yes30c1,075$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.163748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed Yes22c1,049$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.354238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85f…ac2bbacked No31c1,014$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.862657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02ee…b1b4backed No79c1,010$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d68…4f6dbacked Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9359…6aacbacked No69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3104632.6%15 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No64c999.98$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.993666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x4cea…d1d2backed Yes31c979.1$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x051c…f25dbacked Yes24c963.5$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.592245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Yes23c956.61$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.011513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-76.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc001…4b7cbacked Yes14c930.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.713327.3%9 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No61c927.5$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.7316247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa36c…968ebacked Yes18c908.56$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.071921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No67c900$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.378744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61b9…20a3backed Yes22c892.37$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.244122%9 W · 32 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-53.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes34c888.19$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes33c857.09$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.8413023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a71…a222backed No74c849$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+46.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No73c848.65$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.768939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes29c826.12$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.877657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked No74c808.96$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.96520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes31c806.1$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0730%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No71c789.42$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.911124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No19c774.11$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.1618144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xb266…ccbdbacked Yes15c770.99$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4770%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa125…2761backed Yes31c706$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.673148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes24c640.67$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.853414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa3…3044backed No69c628.89$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.55431.5%17 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5778…aa0ebacked Yes34c610$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+97%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60d1…0c8fbacked No8c600$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55215539.4%61 W · 94 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x971f…160abacked No65c557.09$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2890…b5ecbacked Yes16c531.79$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5160%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes5c514.61$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.163716.2%6 W · 31 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes35c514.29$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No78c510.76$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.769254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xece5…43cfbacked No62c500$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1901656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78a8…9850backed Yes22c499.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1084535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ba…9fbcbacked Yes26c494.95$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No79c486.82$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35cb…bd5fbacked No21c484.55$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.552157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+45.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d34…47c8backed Yes30c480.57$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.171631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked No33c476.54$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.2610338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Yes29c450$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes28c446$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.881855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1ec3…f32bbacked Yes19c445$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.65180%0 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes23c431.88$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003534.3%12 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f8…e03abacked Yes20c419$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.65110%0 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda4c…727dbacked Yes23c416.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb583…cc15backed Yes27c414.58$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7205…ffd4backed No12c411.83$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.417431.1%23 W · 51 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No73c409.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.123060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc6f…b080backed No77c408.03$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ed…7d22backed No71c400$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1161070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb99…4daebacked Yes33c400$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1329222.8%21 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdba1…17adbacked No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1e…07d1backed No73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No30c390.69$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.6914141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d41…df69backed Yes10c380$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.