Token Launches · resolved market
Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd732382e600bd7954a2ed0eaaf6584afd8cef5812141d8334bd73c53049cec4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3ade…a2d3backed Yes | 16c | 5,731$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…523cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,702$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd569…48c1backed No | 76c | 2,241$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.88 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…3498backed Yes | 17c | 2,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…bc27backed Yes | 7c | 1,801$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,648$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 8c | 1,626$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.69 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…7a8cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,535$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 75c | 1,366$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.88 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 9c | 948.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.09 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…ab93backed Yes | 14c | 772.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0e…9b77backed Yes | 7c | 767.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 711.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 568.47$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…b1fdbacked No | 73c | 373.58$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8d…f1dfbacked Yes | 5c | 359.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 8c | 321.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b0…2a3fbacked Yes | 7c | 317.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 317.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…09b6backed Yes | 9c | 229.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 65c | 206.61$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 201.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3756…8ad6backed Yes | 10c | 200.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 7c | 179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 10c | 167.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 158.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb74…83aabacked Yes | 10c | 144.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Space FDV above $120M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $140M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $160M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.