TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,274
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$128,895

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,274 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No45c5,835$2,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,225.2816740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No52c4,742$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,267.284131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78e5…694dbacked No28c3,828$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,744.354100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+175.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes50c3,753$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.3213023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b0…7de0backed Yes69c3,226$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecc4…7a2abacked Yes48c3,041$1,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,444.582466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Yes68c2,844$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.993256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed No26c2,728$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.2115941.5%66 W · 93 L+9.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d68…4f6dbacked Yes46c2,200$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02ee…b1b4backed No54c2,200$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Yes72c1,948$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.861643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0822…84e5backed No8c1,900$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7463063.3%19 W · 11 L+6.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+206.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xbbca…9863backed No49c1,847$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.221850%9 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa36c…968ebacked Yes44c1,824$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.291921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc680…a9abbacked No45c1,645$746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe955…3b03backed No49c1,489$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.064238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5304…13e8backed Yes52c1,372$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.731315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb4…afe9backed Yes64c1,321$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes50c1,183$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.041338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked No43c1,163$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.323732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd569…48c1backed Yes56c1,107$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.194334.9%15 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbebf…4e07backed No48c1,078$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.327061.4%43 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc651…15d3backed Yes57c1,050$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.51513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-76.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb583…cc15backed Yes50c1,031$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e85…1f81backed No50c918.95$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4623946.2%18 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7f1…dcbbbacked Yes44c898.3$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.250%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa488…4a49backed No52c859.96$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.634065%26 W · 14 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e15…cfdbbacked Yes61c851.56$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ee…9597backed No7c833$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.4416247.5%77 W · 85 L+13.9wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No43c791.26$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.648344.6%37 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf17…6cc6backed No28c719.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.393666.7%24 W · 12 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+45.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x3a32…562ebacked No56c643.73$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.72580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes51c624.78$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6410462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x330f…01d6backed No50c613$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde90…76b1backed No47c600$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cea…d1d2backed Yes50c594.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa56c…3020backed Yes66c587.31$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x870a…bd43backed No41c552.58$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ddb…a7a5backed No27c525.45$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+166.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb1b…efb5backed No48c520.43$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.695657.1%32 W · 24 L+11.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+74.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x3d1d…256abacked Yes73c502.19$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3655614.3%8 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-52.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked No60c500.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.813333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked No56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2201100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9a6…588ebacked Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2152356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11e9…4136backed No49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.598630.2%26 W · 60 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes46c468.42$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.753154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x981d…ed7fbacked No56c430$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1898744.8%39 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ed…7d22backed No39c406$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2461070%7 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+59.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes16c400$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes60c398.38$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.754057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc701…33c1backed Yes24c363.92$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.911478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes49c363$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.5712840.6%52 W · 76 L+13.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x189e…64c3backed Yes54c357.43$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.723318.2%6 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e2…4a79backed No37c341.95$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.023151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes42c335.42$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.210047%47 W · 53 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No51c315.45$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.453060%18 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No35c300$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19518144.8%81 W · 100 L+23.4wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+55.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x4822…0de4backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1292250%11 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5778…aa0ebacked Yes61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+97%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Yes53c300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-65.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked No65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10514141.8%59 W · 82 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcedb…20febacked No55c300$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes67c299.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-73%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked Yes61c295.25$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.375459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b55…78c7backed No43c291.91$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a32…6d07backed No55c290$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0feb…9876backed Yes71c282.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes71c280.88$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0083…80fdbacked Yes4c269.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81225%3 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-62.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x894d…6916backed Yes46c255$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.53748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e9…1812backed Yes51c254.91$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1302748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x966a…6d73backed Yes56c249.73$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+46.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No43c244.93$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.083414.7%5 W · 29 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No36c237.56$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.048327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x987c…9e49backed No51c228.34$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.141050%5 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No27c223.06$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.417663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No8c202.04$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.511421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc9ba…cf54backed No37c200$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bc…579cbacked No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbf…4ec0backed Yes62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4218…4814backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74bc…124abacked No27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14610338.8%40 W · 63 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xf0e8…904cbacked No51c194.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.488744.8%39 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes11c173.32$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.233315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes30c167.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.1125422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes53c166.72$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0813054.6%71 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2adc…e413backed No60c165.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.962100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+145.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea89…1dc9backed No51c154.54$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.231915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8e0…d94abacked No63c152.99$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.613948.7%19 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…ef98backed Yes66c151.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b7…68a2backed Yes51c138.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.23425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f9a…ed29backed Yes66c137.23$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.95757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No32c130.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6935712.9%46 W · 311 L-29.9wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-55.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7514…fc67backed Yes61c130.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8c…6657backed Yes54c125.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.689352.7%49 W · 44 L+9.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No41c123.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.262810.7%3 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe89d…151dbacked No46c120.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.521118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066e…07c4backed No55c120$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick70cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec3…f32bbacked Yes41c119.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4180%0 W · 18 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.