Token Launches · resolved market
Space FDV above $120M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9737728480910031a70d9324248415c576c7560aa98aa309953a42429602b1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37f…523cbacked Yes | 20c | 2,543$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 71c | 1,250$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.64 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 255.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…6c88backed Yes | 16c | 231.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…821ebacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 8c | 190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 6c | 164.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 465 | 20.4%95 W · 370 L | -68.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -60%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b1…800dbacked Yes | 24c | 109.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…3709backed Yes | 17c | 66.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…14eebacked Yes | 21c | 65.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…fb6fbacked Yes | 19c | 64.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…727dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Space FDV above $120M one day after launch?this page
- Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $140M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $160M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $40M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $60M one day after launch?No won
- Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.