Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a357e51a56ea0befbdec2faa2b93110c9336ff8b1ca5830b17e564ee43d2e26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 69c | 5,859$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.85 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 41c | 3,770$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.17 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 28c | 2,381$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.15 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…30a1backed No | 74c | 1,736$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 58c | 1,294$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.09 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 55c | 1,009$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.03 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 67c | 984.63$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.11 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417c…86dabacked Yes | 46c | 923.45$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 63c | 910$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.8 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 66c | 877.91$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.08 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 45c | 750$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 51c | 719.07$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.34 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 44c | 718.28$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.14 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 65c | 630$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 614.16$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.85 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed No | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…c397backed Yes | 38c | 577.88$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 30c | 566.95$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 50c | 558.51$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.84 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…4690backed Yes | 47c | 557.95$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…1053backed No | 62c | 511.8$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 59c | 504.98$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…b931backed Yes | 40c | 504.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fd…fbe3backed No | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 45c | 490.22$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.55 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 63c | 473.93$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.84 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…d4eebacked Yes | 34c | 457$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked Yes | 41c | 380.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 51c | 374.99$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.37 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 75c | 343$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.24 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…89d7backed Yes | 39c | 342$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…9f24backed Yes | 55c | 339$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 45c | 330$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.25 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…20ddbacked No | 55c | 320$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…73f8backed Yes | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 63c | 311.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.09 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3934…8352backed Yes | 56c | 301.3$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4b…5e66backed Yes | 17c | 300$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cf…e68bbacked No | 53c | 299.16$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…5ff2backed No | 77c | 266.39$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…79d1backed No | 58c | 262.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 60c | 254.65$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.52 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6137…171ebacked No | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 236.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x956d…f8c7backed No | 71c | 230.67$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 62c | 216.2$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d5…0f33backed No | 55c | 207.27$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…f0eebacked Yes | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4c…d5dbbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…e341backed No | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1447…422cbacked Yes | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 48c | 196.86$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4e…51a7backed Yes | 46c | 186.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 29c | 183.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed No | 54c | 177.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed No | 50c | 177.66$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…ebb0backed No | 57c | 174.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 162.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed No | 62c | 157.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 7c | 153.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f67cbacked No | 67c | 150.75$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…0703backed No | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…d0d3backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…ad1dbacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 42c | 129.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 78c | 127.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d7…256bbacked Yes | 35c | 127.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e8…c296backed No | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…09c3backed No | 64c | 121.9$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 64c | 120.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3496backed Yes | 37c | 118$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 53c | 117.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…51bcbacked Yes | 57c | 116$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 112.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…c079backed No | 61c | 112$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec9…be9dbacked Yes | 28c | 102.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5714…5822backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…d758backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…643abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…8732backed No | 66c | 93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 37c | 92.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8682…b50ebacked Yes | 32c | 91.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 36c | 90.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…38d0backed Yes | 45c | 89.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…e0c3backed No | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e90…97babacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…0fd6backed Yes | 40c | 85.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 46c | 84.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 41c | 81.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 41c | 81.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdf…b8a7backed No | 63c | 78.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 76.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…5160backed No | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 39c | 74.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed Yes | 17c | 72.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.