Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff41428d4693be92f59f30bcca367fad1bb96e6fdef0ef1518b7d505ba2f8131
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 79c | 3,088$2,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 29c | 2,176$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.9 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 23c | 1,018$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.03 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 22c | 969.81$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.6 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 34c | 659$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…99bbbacked Yes | 44c | 619$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 80c | 535$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 61c | 504.07$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.62 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 44c | 459.27$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.49 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed No | 55c | 392.01$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 33c | 365.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 51c | 330$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 33c | 325.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59b…5160backed No | 69c | 311$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 68c | 303.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.09 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 4c | 298.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 15c | 293.09$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 26c | 285$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.82 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 69c | 230$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 71c | 223$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes | 33c | 215.15$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked Yes | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…b62abacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…b958backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 196.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 193.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 31c | 159.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 154.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed No | 66c | 145.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…20f7backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked Yes | 41c | 106.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…d535backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed No | 51c | 99.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e47…1268backed Yes | 39c | 89.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 89.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…ac6ebacked No | 65c | 88$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 80c | 80.49$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 63c | 55.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 60c | 53.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…3681backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…1b62backed No | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…5ed1backed Yes | 33c | 38.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…8ed4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…0c4abacked No | 72c | 22.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb994…8351backed No | 63c | 19.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52f…75abbacked No | 64c | 17.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12a5…43a2backed No | 64c | 16.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.