Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c24e707c5f52bbff2f4502ee883f02068b3b4f1c13c0a5ff38104d01b8c8fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95ba…6a41backed Yes | 71c | 10,800$7,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…7febbacked No | 29c | 10,800$3,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,133 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 39c | 8,698$3,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,413.88 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 41c | 6,482$2,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,645.58 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 39c | 3,067$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.76 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed Yes | 45c | 2,963$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.84 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…043ebacked Yes | 65c | 2,801$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.15 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 31c | 1,914$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.53 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 61c | 1,727$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.85 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,625$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.92 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x837d…8a0dbacked Yes | 57c | 1,597$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked No | 33c | 1,500$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.16 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 64c | 1,155$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.42 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 45c | 1,126$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c4…4f84backed Yes | 62c | 804.06$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…c123backed No | 35c | 779.72$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 51c | 721.85$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 64c | 679.5$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.36 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 31c | 638.71$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…bd00backed No | 45c | 636.53$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 69c | 583.1$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…8decbacked Yes | 65c | 570$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…38a3backed Yes | 33c | 549.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked No | 69c | 537.32$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.27 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 61c | 535.96$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.24 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…4d6bbacked No | 37c | 520$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fd…4bf8backed Yes | 59c | 517.45$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.58 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb2…4e55backed No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 40c | 499.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.69 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 51c | 438.42$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No | 36c | 411.36$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.77 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes | 56c | 411.15$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.51 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 64c | 400$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…ff5abacked Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e69…d7e4backed Yes | 63c | 397$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb193…da62backed Yes | 65c | 392$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 44c | 367.14$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.95 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 74c | 354$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 44c | 351.57$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.94 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef7…9a1bbacked Yes | 63c | 350$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 69c | 349.72$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.13 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed No | 11c | 343.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…b141backed Yes | 65c | 330$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…e463backed No | 35c | 330$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 43c | 309.35$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764a…9747backed Yes | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked Yes | 67c | 290.18$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 34c | 287.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked No | 32c | 279.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 34c | 276.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed No | 73c | 269.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 68c | 259.18$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…7734backed No | 38c | 255.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 53c | 252$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed Yes | 46c | 250$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…ad1dbacked No | 68c | 250$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…79e8backed Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…1140backed Yes | 64c | 235$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 42c | 228.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07dc…cb9fbacked No | 44c | 221$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…56ddbacked Yes | 59c | 221$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 58c | 220.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d7…e808backed Yes | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…25fbbacked No | 37c | 215$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…c067backed Yes | 63c | 215$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…a607backed No | 38c | 215$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 61c | 210$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa16…c41fbacked Yes | 64c | 210$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…252fbacked No | 36c | 210$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…9574backed No | 44c | 203$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes | 45c | 202.76$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…7411backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 64c | 190.24$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.83 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 61c | 188.1$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Yes | 69c | 180.93$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…5dabbacked No | 56c | 178.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 173.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cf…20d4backed No | 42c | 171.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 64c | 170$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed No | 30c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…b4d0backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 31c | 166$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 30c | 154$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x328a…30c9backed Yes | 71c | 147$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +711.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…74dbbacked No | 44c | 137.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 134.65$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5573…6da1backed Yes | 59c | 133$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b8…b998backed Yes | 52c | 126.06$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…8b8ebacked Yes | 46c | 118.74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 51c | 114.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 114.11$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…7676backed Yes | 54c | 112.34$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e95…b303backed Yes | 60c | 112$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe109…8ec3backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3254…07f6backed Yes | 44c | 103.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed Yes | 65c | 102.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…fa62backed No | 39c | 102.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.