Stocks · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bbc5dfa0b5415358dafb237589290a05049c456596b6ca2201c759a3326ade6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 77c | 560.74$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.81 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 16c | 445.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.01 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 7c | 399.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes | 9c | 370$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 9c | 369.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 23c | 317.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 313.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 17c | 311$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 15c | 263.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…812bbacked Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 8c | 185$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd1…b942backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 89.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 16c | 79.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0563…124dbacked Yes | 17c | 57.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $490 end of January?this page
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of January?Yes won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $450 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $460 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $500 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $510 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $520 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $530 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $540 end of January?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $550 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.