TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $440 end of January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$71,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$71,122

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,349 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x95ba…6a41backed Yes50c10,800$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48f8…7febbacked No50c10,800$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed No74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes16c2,187$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.3348234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca28…2f7cbacked Yes38c1,706$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.473423.5%8 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6985…afdfbacked No63c1,587$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.19666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes50c1,383$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.287726%20 W · 57 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-52.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfed7…043ebacked Yes30c1,250$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.692814.3%4 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No48c1,248$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.0735151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No51c1,131$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.7681240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes31c1,061$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.923619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1755…5aacbacked Yes32c985.07$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.91,32646.9%622 W · 704 L+41.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7c4…4f84backed Yes63c790.13$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed No49c732.95$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.760229.9%180 W · 422 L-32.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7462…7734backed No38c618.37$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.471758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed No51c550$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.18475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick37cpaid+68.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd80a…d20ebacked Yes53c548$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.153129%9 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-45.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b3c…7cd3backed Yes45c450$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.53938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No61c435.5$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.345937.3%22 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed No50c380.79$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.076631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…8e78backed No40c340$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06f1…42e9backed Yes60c340$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed No45c337.47$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.611662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+40.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No57c325.43$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9312035%42 W · 78 L-10.7wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-38%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No58c314.35$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.449324.7%23 W · 70 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes55c310.88$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.4399038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274168.7%36 W · 380 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15012360.2%74 W · 49 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes48c214.55$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.75639.3%22 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15924.3%4 W · 88 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked No46c176$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.1213751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x73ac…217cbacked No45c172.26$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.94238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c160.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9886338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes51c152.91$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.69540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…c336backed No47c139.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes25c133.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8415131.1%47 W · 104 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb8c…28f0backed Yes58c125$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e32…6d89backed No42c124.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d93…96c3backed Yes62c123$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd31d…626cbacked Yes47c122.73$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No63c120$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4515947.8%76 W · 83 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes49c118.78$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8613147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d1b…7676backed Yes43c116.01$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1086…7b3cbacked No56c111.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.754934.7%17 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No38c110$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.216248.1%78 W · 84 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes45c105$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2543838.8%170 W · 268 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Yes33c105$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.322842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf927…a7abbacked Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde63…46c2backed Yes56c98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.341827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No52c95.21$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.419026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b42…4624backed Yes65c92.36$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0f3…5dbdbacked No58c91.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.14185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick23cpaid-90.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1427429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed No69c90$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b8…ac6ebacked No45c88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.44100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No40c87.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c84.96$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1651927.6%143 W · 376 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa01a…8fdabacked No62c80$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2edb…9ac5backed Yes64c78.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506036.7%22 W · 38 L-8.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-36.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes20c74.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc1…5216backed No46c74.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.231266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5208…073abacked No48c73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a1c…e455backed Yes50c70.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-54.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No64c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.022544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-28%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked No48c56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1210827.8%30 W · 78 L-7.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc52…1db6backed Yes58c54.33$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa1…deebbacked Yes62c54$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick57cpaid-70.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb8f…812bbacked Yes49c50.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.91616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c4c…ea0cbacked Yes44c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x38a3…b461backed Yes21c46.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f9b…eb64backed Yes50c43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf92a…68bcbacked No50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0386…d152backed No55c36.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135f…a83abacked Yes52c34.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc997…a8ecbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes41c33.47$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7216418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes52c32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.656548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No52c31.95$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.346864.7%44 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…cb63backed Yes62c30.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26870.6%48 W · 20 L+12.0wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes46c29.8$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7119934.2%68 W · 131 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No51c26.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1422129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2320…4713backed Yes58c25.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7497…6650backed Yes59c25.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No45c23$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.655628.6%16 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64b4…eb03backed Yes51c21.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3e…2584backed No53c20.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.827338.1%104 W · 169 L-19.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x42ec…ec61backed Yes65c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02e7…1768backed No53c19.47$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b9…df14backed Yes61c19.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.